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Beyond Ukraine and Gaza

The years since 2020 have been one of the most violent periods since the end of the second world war. The war in Ukraine and the escalating violence in the Middle East have dominated global headlines and captured the attention of policymakers and donors. But while the humanitarian toll in both regions is enormous, the fact is that conflicts elsewhere are largely being overlooked.

This is affecting the United Nations’ ability to meet the most basic targets of its 2030 agenda such as ending hunger and extreme poverty. Almost all countries which are the furthest from achieving the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030 (dark blue in figure below) are affected in some way by violent conflict.

Global progress towards UN sustainable development goals:

Currently, one in seven people are exposed to conflict – but even more are suffering its consequences.

In Sudan alone, the outbreak of a civil war in April 2023 has resulted in more than 15,000 fatalities and exacerbated an already existing displacement crisis. Continued violence in Myanmar since the 2021 military coup has resulted in at least 5,000 civilian casualties and more than 3.3 million displaced. Meanwhile, the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) remains ever-present and has a widening global reach. There have been recent attacks in Turkey, Russia and Iran. Meanwhile the group is expanding operations across Africa.

The selective focus of the international community on Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine conflict has serious consequences. It matters, not only for the people living in other conflict zones, but for global development, peace and prospects of building strong institutions and legitimate governments. Our research over four years has identified five critical consequences.

1. More crises, less funding

One of the most immediate consequences of reduced attention to other conflicts is the worsening humanitarian crisis. Funding for humanitarian and development assistance outside of high-profile conflicts has fallen. This has resulted in a severe funding gap – as shown below – which has left millions without essential support.

Countries including Sudan, Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in Africa and Myanmar in South-East Asia have faced severe reductions in aid in recent years. The consequences are dire. Extreme poverty and food insecurity across these regions have soared unchecked and the number of people displaced globally has reached a historic high. In 2024, more than 120 million people are estimated to be displaced.

2. Reversal of development gains

Reducing aid funding as well as political attention to other conflicts exacerbates humanitarian crises. But it also contributes to underdevelopment in conflict-affected areas in critical areas such as poverty, food security, education or gender equality.

In Sudan, for example, civil war has led to the destruction of key infrastructure, including health and education facilities. This has dramatically lowered living standards – especially for women and girls.

In Burkina Faso, the increased proliferation of armed groups since 2016 has contributed to severely restricted access to schooling for children and high levels of food insecurity. Such dynamics are exacerbated by the increasing lack of international aid, especially as conflict-affected countries are grappling with rising inflation and economic instability.

3 The rise of autocracy

From Myanmar to Syria and across the Sahel region, limited international attention to conflict has enabled autocratic leaders to entrench their power. Recent military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger exemplify this shift toward authoritarianism. In most cases this is accompanied by growing public support of militarisation and the involvement of external actors such as the Russian mercenary Wagner Group.

These dynamics affect prospects for peace. They also limit the ability of international actors to support successful negotiations and peace-building. For example, Syria has been entrenched in conflict for more than a decade. The ongoing instability and flailing international attention have allowed the president, Bashar al-Assad, to hold on to power. This has diminished any chances of a successful peace process, as any inclusive deal would likely require significant concessions by the regime and drastic military demobilisation.

4. Spread of organised crime networks

Criminal networks are exploiting growing political instability and diminished international attention in regions such as the Sahel or Central America and the Caribbean. In these countries, organised crime networks thrive, often filling the power vacuums left by weak or failing governments. As criminal organisations step into governance roles in areas of limited state reach, we are likely to see further weakening of state institutions and entrenchment of violent non-state groups.

The growing influence of criminal gangs imposes additional economic costs to already fragile areas and often further hampers any humanitarian activity. Illicit economies developed during conflict often harm any future efforts of peace and state building. Even after these rogue non-state groups are defeated it’s often hard to rebuild trust between the citizens and the state.

5. Conflict escalation and broader contagion

The failure to address these forgotten conflicts risks not only further destabilisation within these countries but also broader regional contagion. For example, the lack of international attention to the Sahel has contributed to the spread of violence across borders, with terrorist groups expanding their reach into neighbouring states. Similarly, unchecked conflicts can lead to increased migration pressures as displaced populations seek refuge in more stable regions.

Of course, it’s important to focus on bringing peace to the terrible conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. But this cannot be allowed to come at the expense of addressing the root causes of violence and instability in other regions.

Failure to address the conflicts that are not currently in the headlines will lead to protracted conflicts, escalating violence and broader global instability. The latter will affect all the citizens of the world, one way or another.

Patricia Justino is the Deputy Director at UNU-WIDER and Professorial Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS) in Brighton, UK (on leave).

Laura Saavedra-Lux is a Research Associate at UNU-WIDER. In her work she examines the micro-foundations of political violence, socio-economic development, and the consolidation of peace.

Samira Diebire is a PhD Candidate, Department of Government at the University of Essex. She was also a Visiting PhD Fellow at UNU-WIDER.

This article was originally published in The Conversation UK. Read the article here.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute or the United Nations University, nor the programme/project donors.