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Agricultural development in Mozambique – seizing opportunities using a novel dataset

Agriculture has long been the backbone of Mozambique’s economy. Over 70% of the population relies on this sector for their livelihoods, contributing 23% to the nation's GDP. Despite its critical role, Mozambique faces significant challenges in boosting agricultural productivity to propel the economy and decisively alleviate poverty. A recent dataset produced under the Inclusive Growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme reveals promising trends and persistent barriers, illustrating the difficulties of achieving progress in the country’s agricultural sector.     

The role of data in policy decisions

Evidence-based policymaking is crucial for addressing complex development challenges. Reliable, high-quality data forms part of the foundation upon which effective agricultural policies must be built. For Mozambique, creating a harmonized dataset from a series of agricultural surveys conducted between 2002 and 2020 by Mozambique’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) marks a significant achievement. This dataset merges information about smallholder production, choices, and strategies, providing a comprehensive view of the agricultural landscape. It is an invaluable tool for designing policies that directly meet farmers’ needs, improving both productivity and livelihoods. 

The challenge of low productivity

A major issue identified in the dataset is the slow pace of agricultural transformation. Smallholder farmers, who comprise 99% of the sector, struggle with low productivity. For example, Mozambique’s average maize yield of one ton per hectare is drastically lower than that of neighbouring South Africa (5 tons per hectare) or the United States (11 tons per hectare). This productivity gap greatly contributes to poverty, as smallholder families cannot generate sufficient income.

Slow adoption of modern inputs

Improving productivity remains hindered by the limited adoption of modern agricultural inputs like better seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation. These inputs are crucial for boosting yields and supporting national food demands, such as supplying food processing sectors, and entering global export markets. Yet, access is uneven across regions. For example, while Tete province shows a relatively high fertilizer usage of 16%, provinces like Zambézia and Sofala have usage rates of less than 2%. Similarly, pesticide and mechanized equipment usage continues to be limited.

Land constraints and income inequality

The dataset also highlights a decline in average land size per smallholder farm, which dropped by 21% from 2002 and 2020. This trend is pronounced in the Southern region and may hinder farmers’ ability to increase market outputs. Despite income rising in some areas, the reduction in plot sizes suggests a cycle of limited opportunity—a poverty trap.

Commercialization challenges

While Mozambique's agricultural sector has seen fragmented growth, commercialization is still a significant challenge. The data indicates that fewer households are selling agricultural products, particularly in the South and Central regions, where market integration is weak. This restricts farmers' ability to profit from their production and stymies economic growth and transformation in the sector.

Addressing funding gaps for agricultural growth

Despite agriculture’s pivotal role in the economy, Mozambique has consistently faced a funding gap in agricultural policies. While the projected government budget for agriculture has increased, actual disbursements have fallen short, undermining efforts to modernize the sector. 

Opportunities for growth and expansion

Despite these challenges, there are positive trends that can serve as a foundation for future growth. Growth in overall agricultural yields during the period—particularly clear in the northern and central regions—offers a strong basis for continued growth in agricultural incomes. Additionally, smallholder farmers engaged in cash crop production, particularly those involved in out-grower schemes, have demonstrated the potential for higher revenues than comparable farmers not engaged in such schemes. Thus, with due regulation, expanding the reach of out-grower schemes forms a valuable tool to boost agriculture sector growth.

Conclusion: data-driven policies for sustainable development of the agricultural sector

Mozambique is at a critical juncture in its agricultural development. The detailed view provided by the IGM programme’s harmonized dataset is essential. By prioritizing smallholder farmers, improving access to modern agricultural inputs, and focusing on evidence-based policymaking, the government can address the structural issues hindering agricultural growth. 

Researchers and policymakers should use and extend the harmonized dataset in the design and implementation of agricultural policies tailored to realities on the ground. By ensuring effective allocation of resources, Mozambique can build a more competitive, resilient, and inclusive agricultural sector for the future.


Márcia Chelengo is an Analyst at the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Mozambique.

Sam Jones is a Senior Research Fellow at UNU-WIDER based in Mozambique.

Finn Tarp is a Professor of Economics at the University of Copenhagen and former Director of UNU-WIDER.

The authors of this blog are co-authors of the Agricultural Development in Mozambique: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities report (in Portuguese). The report is based on the harmonized agriculture sector dataset mentioned in the blog. Both the dataset and report have been produced under the Inclusive Growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme.

The views expressed in this piece are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute or the United Nations University, nor the programme/project donors.