Working Paper
Subjective income expectations and risks in rural India
This paper analyses the pattern and determinants of income risk and expectation in rural India. It uses unique primary survey data eliciting subjective income distribution from households in twelve villages in Bihar. It finds that expected future...
Working Paper
Reforms, Remoteness and Risk in Africa
This study traces the interactions between economic growth, income inequality and consumption poverty in a sample of African countries during the 1990s. It draws on the much-improved household data sets now available in the region. It finds that...
Working Paper
Certification and business risk
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the scope for international private standards to play a role in reducing business risk. Business risk is measured as variability in revenue, customer base, informal payments, and temporary firm closure. The...
Journal Article
Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps
Much has been written on the determinants of technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on...
Working Paper
Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insurance
We employ a novel approach to investigate the reasons for a low demand for agricultural insurance. We confirm that farmers systematically undervalue agricultural insurance. First, we find that private transfers, mainly from family members, explain...
Working Paper
Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?
Numerous studies demonstrate that terrorism causes strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Yet, are these effects short-lived? We answer this question...
Working Paper
Parental risk preferences, maternal bargaining power, and the educational progressions of children
We analyse the effect of parental risk preferences and a novel measure of maternal bargaining power over educational expenses—elicited via lab-in-the-field experiments in rural Côte d’Ivoire—on the educational progression of boys and girls. Data from...
Working Paper
Agricultural risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and farm household welfare and diversification strategies in Africa
Agricultural activities in many African countries are bedevilled by a range of risk factors. Using micro-level household datasets from a range of countries in Africa, we examine the drivers of agricultural risks, while exploring the role of context...
Working Paper
Targeting and Informal Insurance
The standard method of testing for efficient risk-sharing in village economies does not allow one to identify vulnerable households, only to make statements about the average risk in the village, or of sub-groups identifiable on the basis of...
Working Paper
Globalization and Marginalization in Africa
Increased openness is seen by some as a panacea for development while for others it is a recipe for disaster for the poor. Using the example of Ethiopia, this paper discusses some of the key challenges faced by some of the poorest African countries...
Working Paper
Idiosyncratic Risk in the 1990s
This paper examines trends in idiosyncratic risk in different ‘new economy’ and ‘old economy’ industries, and explores whether these developments can be attributed to the use of IT. A CAPM-based decomposition of equity returns is employed to estimate...
Journal Article
Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia
Using panel data from rural Ethiopia, the article discusses the determinants of consumption growth (1989–1997), based on a microgrowth model, controlling for heterogeneity. Consumption grew substantially, but with diverse experiences across villages...
Journal Article
Risk sharing and public transfers
We use public transfers in the form of food aid to test for the presence of risk sharing arrangements at the village level in rural Ethiopia. We reject perfect risk-sharing, but find evidence of partial risk-sharing via transfers. There is also...
Journal Article
Measuring Vulnerability
Traditional poverty measures neglect several important dimensions of household welfare. In this paper we construct a measure of ‘vulnerability’ which allows us to quantify the welfare loss associated with poverty as well as the loss associated with...