Join the network
Blog
Imperfect Data Increases Uncertainty
9 May 2013 Carl-Gustav Lindén The world is a complex place where risk and uncertainty are an everyday challenge. Decision makers at all levels say...
55 UNU-WIDER articles, publications, projects, experts...
Filter by...
Reset all
Working Paper
Eliciting risk preferencesHeterogeneity in subject populations often necessitates choosing an elicitation task that is intuitive, easy to explain, and simple to implement. Given that subject behaviour often differs dramatically across tasks when eliciting risk preferences...
Working Paper
Irregular Migration and Asylum Seekers in the CaribbeanIrregular migration is increasing in the Caribbean while the opportunities for applying for asylum hardly exist. The policy regarding most Caribbean irregular migrants is based on the view of the potential destinations, namely that the migrants are...
Working Paper
Reforms, Remoteness and Risk in AfricaThis study traces the interactions between economic growth, income inequality and consumption poverty in a sample of African countries during the 1990s. It draws on the much-improved household data sets now available in the region. It finds that...
Working Paper
The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income InstabilityThe extent to which commodity price volatility affects the income of producing households and their vulnerability to poverty and food insecurity depends on household diversification patterns and the degree of their exposure to markets. This article...
Book
Escaping Poverty Traps and Unlocking Prosperity in the Face of Climate RiskThis study outlines the origins and evolution of an international award-winning development intervention, index-based livestock insurance (IBLI), which scaled from a small pilot project in Kenya to a design that underpins drought risk management...
Journal Article
Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?Terrorism elicits strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Are these effects short-lived?We answer this question using a natural experiment design and...
Blog
Density and Disasters: Economics of Urban Hazard RiskSomik V. Lall and Uwe Deichmann Following the terrible disaster which struck Haiti last month, in which more than 200,000 people are estimated to have...
Working Paper
Subjective income expectations and risks in rural IndiaThis paper analyses the pattern and determinants of income risk and expectation in rural India. It uses unique primary survey data eliciting subjective income distribution from households in twelve villages in Bihar. It finds that expected future...
Working Paper
Risk and investmentThis paper explores the impact of exposure to uninsured risks on the investment decisions of farmers. We distinguish between households’ perceived exposure to uninsured risk, measured as past exposure to deviations in average rainfall levels, and the...
Working Paper
Certification and business riskThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the scope for international private standards to play a role in reducing business risk. Business risk is measured as variability in revenue, customer base, informal payments, and temporary firm closure. The...
Working Paper
Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insuranceWe employ a novel approach to investigate the reasons for a low demand for agricultural insurance. We confirm that farmers systematically undervalue agricultural insurance. First, we find that private transfers, mainly from family members, explain...
Journal Article
Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty trapsMuch has been written on the determinants of technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on...
Book Chapter
Certification and business riskPart of Book Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises in Vietnam
Working Paper
Institutional Analysis of Financial Market Fragmentation in Sub-Saharan AfricaThe paper examines the source of financial market fragmentation in sub-Saharan Africa in the framework of institutional economics. Based on fieldwork data from Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania, it analyses financial risk management, the...
Working Paper
Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed?Mutual insurance has been shown, theoretically and empirically, to be incomplete and limited by asymmetric information and lack of enforcement mechanisms. While some research has shown that networks based on kinship, neighbourhood and ethnicity may...
Working Paper
Risk-Sharing and Endogenous Network FormationIn economic literature insurance networks are often treated as exogenous institutions. Frequently, the assumption is made that some clearly identifiable group (e.g. ‘the whole village’ or ‘the extended family’) constitutes an insurance network. Still...
Working Paper
Tomorrow's HungerWhilst traditional food security analysis offers an ex post view on who the food insecure are and why they are so, looking at food insecurity from a vulnerability perspective provides a dynamic and forward looking way of analysing causes and more...
Journal Article
Risk sharing and public transfersWe use public transfers in the form of food aid to test for the presence of risk sharing arrangements at the village level in rural Ethiopia. We reject perfect risk-sharing, but find evidence of partial risk-sharing via transfers. There is also...
Journal Article
Measuring VulnerabilityTraditional poverty measures neglect several important dimensions of household welfare. In this paper we construct a measure of ‘vulnerability’ which allows us to quantify the welfare loss associated with poverty as well as the loss associated with...
Working Paper
Income Risk, Coping Strategies and Safety NetsHigh income risk is part of life in developing countries. Climatic risks, economic fluctuations, but also a large number of individual-specific shocks make these households vulnerable to serious hardship. For example, details are given on the various...
Journal Article
Shocks and agricultural investmentPart of Journal Special Issue Understanding agricultural development and change
Journal Article
Understanding farmers' valuation of agricultural insurancePart of Journal Special Issue Understanding agricultural development and change
Working Paper
Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?Numerous studies demonstrate that terrorism causes strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Yet, are these effects short-lived? We answer this question...
Working Paper
Parental risk preferences, maternal bargaining power, and the educational progressions of childrenWe analyse the effect of parental risk preferences and a novel measure of maternal bargaining power over educational expenses—elicited via lab-in-the-field experiments in rural Côte d’Ivoire—on the educational progression of boys and girls. Data from...
Working Paper
Agricultural risks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and farm household welfare and diversification strategies in AfricaAgricultural activities in many African countries are bedevilled by a range of risk factors. Using micro-level household datasets from a range of countries in Africa, we examine the drivers of agricultural risks, while exploring the role of context...
Book Chapter
Globalization and Marginalization in AfricaPart of Book The Poor under Globalization in Asia, Latin America, and Africa
Working Paper
Targeting and Informal InsuranceThe standard method of testing for efficient risk-sharing in village economies does not allow one to identify vulnerable households, only to make statements about the average risk in the village, or of sub-groups identifiable on the basis of...
Journal Article
Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational Regions in South AfricaPart of Journal Special Issue Vulnerability in Development
Journal Article
Measuring Health Inequality with Realization of Potential Life Year (RePLY)Part of Journal Special Issue Health and Development
Journal Article
COVID-19 pandemic, household welfare and diversification strategies of smallholder farmers in UgandaAgricultural activities in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are subject to various risk factors that the COVID-19 compounds. Earlier studies on the effect of COVID-19 on smallholders neglect the issue of comparison with non-farm households...
Working Paper
Globalization and Marginalization in AfricaIncreased openness is seen by some as a panacea for development while for others it is a recipe for disaster for the poor. Using the example of Ethiopia, this paper discusses some of the key challenges faced by some of the poorest African countries...
Working Paper
Remittances and Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural MexicoInternational remittances have been portrayed as the human face of globalization given their potential to alleviate poverty by directly increasing household income. Using a panel of rural households in Mexico from October 1998 to November 2000 this...
Working Paper
Risk Sharing and Public TransfersWe use public transfers in the form of food aid to test for the presence of risk sharing arrangements at the village level in rural Ethiopia. We reject perfect risk-sharing, but find evidence of partial risk-sharing via transfers. There is also...
Working Paper
Measuring VulnerabilityTraditional poverty measures neglect several important dimensions of household welfare. In this paper we construct a measure of ‘vulnerability’ which allows us to quantify the welfare loss associated with poverty as well as the loss associated with...
Working Paper
Idiosyncratic Risk in the 1990sThis paper examines trends in idiosyncratic risk in different ‘new economy’ and ‘old economy’ industries, and explores whether these developments can be attributed to the use of IT. A CAPM-based decomposition of equity returns is employed to estimate...
Working Paper
Health, Shocks and Poverty PersistenceIn this paper we review the evidence on the impact of large shocks, such as drought, on child and adult health, with particular emphasis on Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Our focus is on the impact of shocks on long-term outcomes, and we ask whether there...
Working Paper
Measuring Vulnerability and PovertyThis paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty...
Working Paper
Measuring the Vulnerability of Subnational RegionsA small but growing literature has been concerned about the economic (and environmental) vulnerability on the level of countries. Less attention is paid to the economic vulnerability of different regions within countries. By focusing on the...
Journal Article
Remittances and Vulnerability to Poverty in Rural MexicoPart of Journal Special Issue Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality in Latin America
Book Chapter
Institutional Analysis of Financial Market Fragmentation in Sub-Saharan AfricaPart of Book Domestic Resource Mobilization and Financial Development
Book Chapter
Reforms, Remoteness, and Risk in AfricaPart of Book Spatial Inequality and Development
Book Chapter
The Impact of Domestic and International Commodity Price Volatility on Agricultural Income Instability in Ghana, Vietnam and PeruPart of Book Food Security
Blog
Risk, Poverty, and Safety Nets
by Stefan Dercon Poor people in developing countries must cope with droughts, floods, illness, recession, and political instability. Much of their...
Journal Article
Growth and shocks: evidence from rural EthiopiaUsing panel data from rural Ethiopia, the article discusses the determinants of consumption growth (1989–1997), based on a microgrowth model, controlling for heterogeneity. Consumption grew substantially, but with diverse experiences across villages...
Displaying 55 of 55 results