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Imperfect Data Increases Uncertainty
9 May 2013 Carl-Gustav Lindén The world is a complex place where risk and uncertainty are an everyday challenge. Decision makers at all levels say...
24 UNU-WIDER articles, publications, projects, experts...
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Working Paper
A Contract Perspective on the International Finance FacilityThe present paper is a first attempt to develop a theoretical model using a short-term vis-à-vis long-term contract framework within which donor countries’ endorsement or rejection decision towards the recently proposed International Finance Facility...
Journal Article
An Uncertainty Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Zambezi River BasinPart of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley
Working Paper
Sell the oil deposits!The Yasuni National Park is a protected area located in the Amazon region of Ecuador and is recognized as one of the most biodiverse regions in the world. In recent years the park has received much attention due to the media exposure of the Yasuni...
Working Paper
A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in BangladeshClimate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change...
Working Paper
Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change?This paper examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change, globally with a special focus on Morocco and Turkey. We use the GTAP model, which is a global general equilibrium model, to investigate trade...
Working Paper
Climate Change Impacts on Moroccan Agriculture and the Whole EconomyThe paper provides estimates of economic impacts of climate change, compares these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimates the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert...
Working Paper
An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South AfricaThis study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by...
Working Paper
Poverty, Vulnerability, and Reference Dependent UtilityIn this paper we argue that the recent evidence on individuals’ decision making is of high relevance for the measurement of poverty when switching from a static and certain to a dynamic and uncertain framework. The numerous proposed measures of multi...
Working Paper
Morocco’s Unique Situation in the Climate Change ArenaAlterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures due to climate change will most likely translate into yield reductions in desirable crops. In this particular context, the object of this paper is to lay down findings and results for...
Working Paper
Making marriages lastIn high HIV-prevalence contexts, marriage can lead to significant risks through spousal behaviours. Yet, individuals cannot rely on their spouse to reveal their HIV status. Couples’ HIV testing and counselling can provide spouses with credible...
Working Paper
Project appraisalThis paper makes the case for the systematic appraisal of public sector projects using shadow prices as the signals of social scarcities. In so doing, it attempts to redress the balance between estimating inputs and outputs, central though that task...
Working Paper
Shadow prices for a small open economy under uncertaintyThis paper re-examines the validity of using expected values to evaluate the social profitability of public investments under uncertainty. Departing from the usual assumption of an aggregate good, the setting is a small open economy that faces...
Working Paper
Applying Behavioural Economics to International Development PolicyMany development policies and programmes are premised on a traditional economic model of rationality to predict how individuals will respond to changes in incentives. Despite the emphasis of these programmes on poverty reduction, economists and the...
Journal Article
Some Forward Looking Thoughts on Studying Climate Adaptation for an Uncertain FuturePart of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development
Journal Article
A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in BangladeshPart of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development
Journal Article
Poverty, Vulnerability, and Reference-Dependent UtilityPart of Journal Special Issue Poverty, Development, and Behavioral Economics
Book Chapter
Applying Behavioural Economics to International Development PolicyPart of Book Advancing Development
Research Brief
Potential impacts of climate change on national water supply in South AfricaClimate change risks for run-off and irrigation demand vary significantly across South Africa, with some regions expected to experience increased drying and others flooding Smaller impacts on water resources by 2050 are expected if global emissions...
Research Brief
Climate change effects on irrigation demand and crop yields in South AfricaThe demand for irrigation is likely to increase in South Africa as a result of increased temperatures and evaporation rates. Rain-fed agricultural crops are likely to experience a decline in average annual yields. This is particularly the case for...
Research Brief
Future climate scenarios for South AfricaMore intense climate changes are expected in South Africa if GHG emissions are not constrained. Increased GHG emissions are likely to result in increases in average annual surface temperatures and higher evaporation rates. Average precipitation...
Book Chapter
Valuation of Tropical ForestsPart of Book The Environment and Emerging Development Issues
Research Brief
The Cost of Climate Change in VietnamOver the period 2007–50 climate change is predicted to cause Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate to fall between 0.02 and 0.10 percentage points. While small relative to GDP, absolute loss levels due to climate change are significant at between US$6-15$...
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