We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya’s foreign trade using quarterly trade data for the period 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The exploratory analysis shows that growth of Kenya’s merchandise exports remained resilient...
Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use...
The paper reviews the debate about transparency in extractive industry commodities trade. It examines the obstacles to improved transparency. A critical review of the experience with estimating losses from a lack of transparency concludes that many...
Several episodes of market-oriented reforms in developing countries have been accompanied by a significant rise in work outside of the formal economy. This paper investigates whether the impact of increased exposure to trade on formal employment is...
How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly...
Sub-Saharan African economies have experienced accelerated economic growth in the past two decades. In this paper we study the impact of trade-induced structural change on employment and value-added shares in sub-Saharan African economies. We find...
We show that the Russia–Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases...
Six Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand) defied Gunnar Myrdal’s pessimistic prognosis in his 1968 volume, Asian Drama, regarding their prospects for development. In...
Part of Book Industries without Smokestacks
Migration decisions affect those left-behind in ways that are partly taken into account by market forces (e.g., wage effects on labour markets) and for the most part these can be seen as pure externalities. Diasporas are an example of such an...
The Republic of South Africa faces the imperative of escaping economic stagnation. This paper seeks to synthesize results from a series of research efforts, including but not limited to the work conducted under the UNU-WIDER project on ‘Regional...
This paper considers the impact of agriculture and international trade development on income distribution and economic activity in Mozambique. A social accounting matrix multiplier decomposition model is used—in particular, an extension of the...
Zimbabwe’s persistent economic challenges since the early 1990s have been largely attributed to unpopular political decisions at the expense of building productive capacity in different sectors of the economy. Using a global value chains framework...
This paper evaluates the impact of Chinese import penetration on the innovation of Vietnamese manufacturing firms from 2011 to 2015, exploiting variations in import exposure by industry specialization and instrumenting for Chinese import penetration...
The term fiscal resource curse refers to countries’ inability to raise taxes from a broad base in the presence of natural resources. We employ a novel instrumental variable strategy to estimate the causal effect of resource revenues on non-resource...
The implementation of a Single Customs Territory by East African Community countries is intended to ease the movement of goods across borders by cutting costs and time through harmonization and simplification of customs documents, removal of...
The recent discovery of large fields of natural gas in Mozambique has led to great international interest and expectations of future gains. However, many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve long-term sustainable growth, whether because...
The role of exports in promoting economic growth has been widely acknowledged. This paper analyses the link between exporting and growth performance in Kenya using time series data. Despite trade liberalization and export promotion policies pursued...
The decline of employment in middle-wage, routine task intensive jobs has been well documented for the USA. Increased offshoring towards lower-income countries such as Mexico has been proposed as a potential driver of this decline. Our analysis...
People make decisions as to whether to migrate based on the costs and benefits they expect for themselves and for their loved ones. Individual migration decisions affect those left behind in ways that are, for some part, taken into account by market...
Part of Journal Special Issue What sustains informality
The role of exports in promoting economic growth has been widely acknowledged. This paper analyses the link between exports, imports, and growth performance in Kenya using time series data. Despite trade liberalization and export promotion policies...
Cross-border traders face a choice between official and unofficial border crossings. The latter allow them to evade taxes, but expose them to other risks, such as bribes, fines, and arrest. We investigate the perceptions of cross-border traders about...
This Technical Note describes Ugandan trade data covering import and export declarations for ten calendar years from January 2013 to December 2022, constructed from transactional-level Ugandan administrative data. The trade data series contains...
15-20% of local demand for poultry in South Africa is met by imports Evidence from Zambia suggests that capital investments in the value chain can increase local production Increased demand due to growing urban populations poses critical challenges...
Sub-Saharan African exports of horticultural and processed agricultural products are growing in line with the major shift towards these products in world markets. Continued growth in these exports may be vitally important for expanding returns from...
This paper examines how trade sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unexpected and unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012. We use a difference-in-differences...
We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with the sanctioned state.On the one hand, trade models suggest that trade flows should decrease as sanctions disrupt trading routes and economic ties with...
This paper examines how economic sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 and focus on the manufacturing sector. Employing a...
We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows, as they disrupt established trading routes and economic...
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