Climate change uncertainty and adaptation policy

Professor Channing Arndt presented recent approaches developed for analyzing the implications of climate change and appropriate policy responses.

Detailed analyses have been undertaken or are in process for Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Vietnam. Analyzing climate change is a complex and interdisciplinary challenge. It involves first developing likely trajectories for climate, of which there are many. These trajectories are summarized by temperature and precipitation information. The trajectories may differ dramatically, especially with respect to precipitation. Each trajectory or climate outcomes must then be translated into biophysical outcomes such as crop yields, river flow, road depreciation rates and hydroelectric generation. Extreme events, such as floods and cyclones, merit particular attention. Biophysical outcomes are then used as inputs into an economywide modeling framework in order to capture macroeconomic implications. A summary of lessons learned from existing analyses was presented along with plans and approaches for future research.

Channing Arndt is a Professor of Economics at the University of Copenhagen and the leader of the climate change pillar at the World Institute for Development Economics Research.