Nina von Uexkull on Climate change, cooperation and conflict: Evidence from Bangladesh

Nina von Uexkull presents at the WIDER Seminar Series on 12 March 2025.

Climate change, cooperation and conflict: Evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

The academic discourse on climate change and conflict has predominantly concentrated on violent armed conflicts, with concerns about the security implications of climate change increasingly gaining traction within defense and foreign policy communities. However, cooperative responses to climate change impacts are arguably more common than violent outcomes and warrant greater scholarly attention. 

This study examines how exposure to riverine flooding and riverbank erosion influences local conflict and cooperation patterns, utilizing a unique panel survey dataset from approximately 1,400 households across 36 communities along a 250-kilometer stretch of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh. These communities share a similar ex-ante flood and riverbank erosion risk exposure, providing a robust basis for analysis. Preliminary results suggest that flood and erosion exposure among respondents who remain in their home villages is associated with both increased cooperative interactions and heightened exposure to crime and disputes. 

This research is timely, as existing studies on climate change and security have largely focused on armed conflict, often neglecting other security-related outcomes. The findings have significant implications for understanding future risks in the context of projected local climatic and societal changes. With nearly half of Bangladesh's population currently estimated to be at risk of fluvial flooding and related erosion, and with this exposure expected to increase in the coming decades, this study offers critical insights into the broader impacts of climate change on human security.

About the presenter

Nina von Uexkull is Professor of International Politics at the University of Konstanz and also an adjunct professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University. Her main research areas are the impacts of climate change and climate change policies on armed conflict and human security. She currently leads a VR-funded research project on climate change mitigation and protest and was awarded the 2022 Oscar Prize by Uppsala University.

WIDER Seminar Series

The WIDER Seminar Series showcases the latest research on key topics in development economics. It provides a forum for senior and early-career researchers, both in-house and external, to present recent and ongoing work related to UNU-WIDER’s current work programme.

In addition to providing a forum for both academic debate and training, the series presents an opportunity for policymakers and others interested in development to learn about the latest research methods and findings.

The WIDER Seminar Series events take place on Wednesdays. All those interested are invited to register and attend via Zoom or in person.