Journal Article
CUBA

This paper takes up the challenge of prediction, albeit in a limited form which offers several possible scenarios. A central point of the analysis is that fundamental change in the economy of Cuba is blocked because leaders are not fully committed to reform and are, in tact, generally hostile to forming new political alliances with those who can 'win' from the emerging economic structure. This stymies policy-making and, in turn, the economy: any reform-induced recovery is likely to be followed by a slowdown while Cuban leaders wait to see if they have altered policy just enough to avoid a downward slide. The resulting stop-and-go cycle diminishes confidence in the irreversibility of reform and discourages both investment and growth.