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Why do we see boom-and-bust growth in fragile and conflict-affected states?
One of the most pressing challenges in development policy is to bring about rapid, sustained, and inclusive growth in developing countries. Apart from...
196 UNU-WIDER articles, publications, projects, experts...
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Working Paper
Are we measuring natural resource wealth correctly?Underlying the management of revenues from natural resource extraction is a set of assumptions about how abundant and how valuable these resources are. Nevertheless, existing approaches to measuring the value of extractive resources are seriously...
Working Paper
Good institutions and tax revenue outcomes in resource-rich countriesDeveloping countries that experience commodity booms struggle to mobilize sustainable tax revenues. Emerging literature on the subject notwithstanding, there is limited exploration of the specific types of institutions critical for improving fiscal...
Working Paper
The Geographical Location of Manufacturing Exporters in South AfricaThis paper provides empirical evidence on the location of export-oriented manufacturing firms in Africa (South Africa), and on how the patterns of location has changed over the past decade after the country embarked on trade liberalization. It is...
Blog
The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign AidTony Addison, Tseday Mekasha, Milla Nyyssölä, Lucy Scott, Finn Tarp, Tuuli Ylinen To meet development objectives, aid recipients and their donor...
Working Paper
Climate change policy and power sector reform in Mexico under the ‘golden age of gas’Mexico’s low-carbon technology perspectives show lack of coherence with the rising ambition in climate change commitments, for which Mexico is internationally praised. The comparison of two recent energy reforms, corresponding to two administrations...
Working Paper
Diamonds, Foreign Aid, and the Uncertain Prospects for Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Sierra LeoneThis article examines the external and internal dimensions of post-conflict reconstruction in Sierra Leone. The United Nations, bilateral donors such as the United Kingdom, and transnational non-governmental organizations and aid agencies have been...
Working Paper
Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource EconomiesThe current paper demonstrates a dichotomy of the growth response to changes in the barter terms of trade, employing as case studies the two African countries, Botswana and Nigeria. Using distributed-lag analysis, the paper finds that the effect of...
Working Paper
Understanding the boomThere are large volumes of gas offshore Tanzania, which has raised hopes of a boom. But those hopes look set to be disappointed. A boom would depend on there being a sizeable flow of revenue to government from producing and exporting gas. This paper...
Working Paper
Understanding the boomA significant natural resource discovery creates excited popular expectations of imminent wealth. But the size of a boom is usually overestimated and the delay in receiving revenues is underestimated. This paper takes stock of the sequencing, timing...
Working Paper
Construction and public procurement in UgandaAs it transitions to an oil-producing country, Uganda’s investments in infrastructure and physical capital will increasingly depend on the ability of the construction sector to respond to surges in demand and transform investment effort into outcomes...
Working Paper
Between Past and Future of Latin AmericaThis paper provides a synthesis of the four papers on the Latin American and Caribbean economies: Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. It focuses on the following themes: macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal challenges, poverty...
Journal Article
The heterogeneous effect of oil discoveries on democracyThis paper evaluates the existence of a resource curse on political regimes using the Synthetic Control Method. Focusing on 12 countries, we compare their democracy level with the weighted democracy level of countries that have not experienced oil...
Working Paper
Persistence of UnderdevelopmentThis paper examines growth successes and failures across countries and notes the latter’s perplexing predominance among ex ante low-income economies. An explanation for this persistence of underdevelopment is proposed through an empirical...
Blog
Can extractive industries promote development?
I spent the last couple of days at a fascinating workshop at UNU-WIDER on the role of extractive industries in development. Tony Addison, UNU-WIDER...
Working Paper
Foreign Direct Investment in AfricaData from several investor surveys suggest that macroeconomic instability, investment restrictions, corruption and political instability have a negative impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) to Africa. However, the relationship between FDI and...
Working Paper
Oil discoveries and democracyWe evaluate the effect of natural resources on political regimes. We use the synthetic control method to compare evolution of the democracy level of countries affected by giant oil discoveries with the weighted democracy level of countries that do...
Blog
Will a revenue boom support development in resource-rich economies?The post-COVID-19 economic recovery and Russia’s war with Ukraine have caused some natural resource prices to reach new highs. Although forecasting...
Research Brief
Burkina Faso – growth without poverty reductionBurkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa, poor in natural resources, and with low levels of human development. Its economy remains agricultural and focused on food crops and cotton production. Over the last twenty years it has experienced...
Journal Article
Measuring the Carbon Intensity of the South African EconomyWe estimate the carbon intensity of industries, products and households in South Africa using data from a high resolution supply-use table. Direct and indirect carbon usage is measured using multiplier methods that capture inter-industry linkages and...
Journal Article
Optimum Reserve Size, Fishing Induced Change in Carrying Capacity, and Phenotypic DiversityFish stocks around the world are heavily overexploited in spite of fishing policies in several parts of the world designed to limit overfishing. Recent studies have found that the complexity of ecological systems and the diversity of species, as well...
Working Paper
Changing Income Inequality and Structural TransformationIn Sub-Saharan Africa we find some of the highest levels of income inequality in the world. Nevertheless, we generally know very little about the historical development of inequality. In this paper we look at how inequality developed in colonial and...
Journal Article
Biofuels and Economic DevelopmentBiofuels could offer new economic opportunities for low-income countries. We use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Tanzania to evaluate different biofuels production options and estimate their impacts on growth and poverty...
Working Paper
Prospects for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic in KenyaCapacity planners in developing countries frequently use screening curves and other system-independent metrics such as levelized cost of energy to guide investment decisions. This can lead to spurious conclusions when evaluating intermittent power...
Working Paper
Youth in Tanzania’s Urbanizing Mining SettlementsOver the last fifteen years many African countries have experienced a ‘mining take-off’. Mining activities have bifurcated into two sectors: large-scale, capital-intensive production generating the bulk of the exported minerals, and small-scale...
Book Chapter
Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource EconomiesThe current paper demonstrates a dichotomy of the growth response to changes in the barter terms of trade, employing as case studies the two African countries, Botswana and Nigeria. Using distributed-lag analysis, the paper finds that the effect of...
Working Paper
New industrial policy and the extractive industriesIndustrial policy is back. Advocates for industrial policy argue that the important question is not whether such policies should be applied at all, but how to design and implement them. For the extractive industries this development poses a challenge...
Working Paper
A Hybrid Approach to Incorporating Climate Change and Variability into Climate Scenario for Impact AssessmentsTraditional ‘delta-change’ approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This...
Book Chapter
The copper sector, fiscal rules, and stabilization funds in ChilePart of Book Extractive Industries
Book Chapter
The role of governance and international norms for managing natural resourcesPart of Book Extractive Industries
Book Chapter
Donor-supported approaches to improving extractives governancePart of Book Extractive Industries
Working Paper
A Land Cursed by its Wealth?In Angola, the availability of two abundant resources (oil and diamonds) has prolonged the conflict beyond its Cold War context. The geography and political economy of these resources were crucial to the course taken by the conflict. Matching the...
Working Paper
The IMF Model and Resource-Abundant Transition EconomiesThe IMF model of the economic transition stresses the role of macro policy reform. It concludes that rapid reform to a market economy is preferable to slow reform because late reformers experience very steep transition recessions and severe...
Working Paper
Natural Resources and Economic GrowthThe paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then...
Working Paper
A Macroeconomic Model of a Developing Country Endowed with a Natural ResourceThe present paper presents a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of the type suggested in Sachs (1996), attempting to differentiate economic development in East Asia with Latin America. Latin America, when compared to East Asia is said to...
Working Paper
Resource-Led Growth - A Long-Term PerspectiveResource-Led Growth - A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting...
Working Paper
Rowing against the currentThe exploitation of natural resources is a huge opportunity, but one that carries considerable risks. Relative prices in resource-exporting economies tend to push them towards economic structures dominated by the resource sector. This paper explores...
Journal Special Issue
Regional Growth OpportunitiesThis issue contains seven articles addressing the major changes underway in the integration of economies in southern Africa. This special issue is based on the UNU-WIDER project 'Regional growth and development in Southern Africa'. This project aims...
Journal Article
Introduction to special issue on regional growth opportunitiesPart of Journal Special Issue Regional Growth Opportunities
Working Paper
Southern Engines of Global GrowthThis article views the four economies of the South in a long run historical perspective of 1500-2000. It contrasts the history and the initial endowments of the two Northern hemisphere economies China and India which are land scarce and labour...
Working Paper
Optimal local content for extractive industriesTanzania is rich with natural resources, which have significant potential to contribute to the country’s economic development. Several laws recently passed in Tanzania are dedicated to establishing linkages between foreign firms in natural resource...
Working Paper
Resource Abundance and Economic DevelopmentSince the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially...
Blog
Introducing Carbon Taxes in South Africa
James Thurlow South Africa is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. In 2007 it ranked 13th amongst all countries in terms of its overall...
Working Paper
The Economics Of Complex Humanitarian EmergenciesThis paper, a draft from the early stages of an ongoing UNU/WIDER research project, outlines hypotheses for the economic cause of humanitarian disasters. Complex humanitarian emergencies are considered to be man-made crises, in which large numbers of...
Blog
What role for East African hydrocarbons in the global economy post-Paris COP21?
Over the past decade significant hydrocarbon discoveries have been made across East Africa. Unsurprisingly, the respective governments countries have...
Working Paper
The role of governance and international norms in managing natural resourcesThe governance of natural resource wealth is widely considered to constitute a key determinant in whether the extraction of natural resources proves to be a blessing or a curse. What is meant by governance can span a wide range of components, while...
Journal Article
Does the Political Resource Curse Affect Public Finance? The Vulnerability of Tax Revenue in Resource-Dependent CountriesPart of Journal Special Issue Fiscal Policy, State Building and Economic Development
Working Paper
Humanitarian Emergencies and Warlord Economies in Liberia and Sierra LeoneThis paper explains correlations between humanitarian emergencies and political economies of 'failing states' in Liberia and Sierra Leone. In both, Cold War era rulers acquired personal power through their influence over economic exchange...
Journal Article
Gender Implications of Biofuels Expansion in AfricaWe use a gendered dynamic CGE model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in a low-income, land-abundant setting. Mozambique is chosen as a representative case. We compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing...
Working Paper
Capital flight and foreign direct investment in AfricaThis paper aims to provide theoretical and empirical insights into the puzzling simultaneous rise in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Africa and capital flight from the continent over the past decades. It specifically explores two questions...
Working Paper
Measuring the Carbon Content of the South African EconomyWe estimate the carbon intensity of industries, products, and households in South Africa. Direct and indirect carbon usage is measured using multiplier methods that capture inter-industry linkages and multi-product supply chains. Carbon intensity is...
Working Paper
Unofficial sovereign wealth funds and duration in power in AfricaThis paper argues that in weak states, leaders whose hold on power is secured by the public fortune have turned to the use of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), especially unofficial SWFs, to cement their hold on power. Unofficial SWFs are private funds...
Blog
Extractive industries and development - What’s in the UNU-WIDER research pipeline?
The recent anti-corruption summit in London highlighted a much-publicized issue in development—transparency is crucial in the minerals sector. However...
Working Paper
The linkages of energy, water, and land use in Southeast AsiaThis paper aims to contribute to understanding the existing knowledge gaps in the linkages of energy, water, and land use in Southeast Asia and explores the political economy of energy transition in the Mekong region (MR). Investigating the struggle...
Blog
Aid in the Climate Change Combat
17 April 2013 Carl-Gustav Lindén In recent weeks there have been several large gatherings of experts dealing with how to tackle the complex climate...
Blog
The Gothenburg Graduates and their Impact in Africa – How Aid has Worked: An Interview with Wisdom Akpalu
29 August 2013 Carl-Gustav Lindén Since 1997 the University of Gothenburg, Sweden has been running a unique PhD programme on environmental and...
Blog
UNU-WIDER in Ghana – An Interview with Wisdom Akpalu
23 April 2014 Wisdom Akpalu joined UNU-WIDER as a Research Fellow based in Ghana in the beginning of 2014. Prior to joining the Institute he was an...
Journal Article
The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy ProgramWe estimate the impact of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program using an economy-wide approach. This approach yields benefit-cost ratios about 60% higher than existing partial equilibrium studies, a result of our accounting for indirect benefits...
Working Paper
Foreign Aid, Resource Rents and Institution-Building in Mozambique and AngolaSharing similar colonial and post-independence civil war experiences, Mozambique and Angola’s development paths are often contrasted, with foreign aid-dependent Mozambique hailed a success compared to oil rentier Angola. This paper questions the so...
Blog
Regional Industrialization and Integration in Southern Africa - Reporting from TIPS Annual Forum
The white-painted cluster of traditional style buildings might suggest that this was a farm on the South African veldt. Not so however—it was Trade...
Blog
Malawi's Farm Subsidy Benefits the Poor but Doesn't Come CheapMalawi’s farm input subsidy benefits the poor and can be part of a viable national development strategy. Agriculture is Malawi’s main economic sector...
Blog
From the Editor's Desk (September-October 2015)
UNU-WIDER had a busy September. We celebrated our 30th birthday with some 600 people at our three-day conference on ‘Mapping the Future of Development...
Journal Article
Aid and policy preferences in oil-rich countriesPart of Journal Special Issue Aid to Support Fragile States
Working Paper
Alternatives to local contentThis paper suggests that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more minimal one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. We argue that local content...
Working Paper
Can Norway Be a Role Model for Natural Resource Abundant Countries?During the 1950-70s Norway had relatively low GDP per capita compared to the OECD average and even more so compared to Denmark and Sweden. During the 1970s there was a significant catch-up in incomes and from the early 1990s a ‘take-off’ in relative...
Working Paper
Aid, Growth and Private Capital Flows to GhanaThis study provides an analysis of the aid-private capital flows-growth nexus for Ghana. It is premised on the argument that Ghana’s new status as a middle income country plus the start of oil production is bound to result in a reduction in ODA...
Blog
Managing Resource Abundance
by Richard Auty At first sight, countries that are abundant in minerals and other natural resources should enjoy faster development. But between 1960...
Book
The Environment and Emerging Development IssuesTwo and a half billion people are affected directly on a day to day basis by the allocation and use of primary local resources. Yet `official' development economics has concentrated on headline international issues and only recently begun to take...
Working Paper
Commercialization in agriculture in rural Vietnam, 2006-14The vast majority of households in rural Vietnam undertake agricultural activities and for many this is their main livelihood. Moreover, this agriculture has become increasingly commercialized over time. This paper uses the five wave VARHS balanced...
Journal Article
The Geography of Civil WarPart of Journal Special Issue Civil War in Developing Countries
Book
The Environment and Emerging Development IssuesTwo and a half billion people are affected directly on a day to day basis by the allocation and use of purely local resources. Yet `official' development economics has concentrated on headline international issues and only recently begun to take...
Book
The Environment and Emerging Development IssuesThis text is the first of two volumes. Two and a half billion people are affected directly on a day-to-day basis by the allocation and use of local resources. Yet ‘official’ development economics has concentrated on headline international issues and...
Journal Article
Foreign Aid, Resource Rents, and State Fragility in Mozambique and AngolaPart of Journal Special Issue Aid and Institution-Building in Fragile States
Working Paper
Political economy and governanceThis paper reviews the political economy of extractive resources and the associated resources sector governance agenda. The consensus that good sector governance improves the developmental impacts of extractive resources exploitation is premised on...
Working Paper
Donor-supported approaches to improving extractives governanceDonor interest in the extractives sector is based upon the premise that it represents an opportunity to improve a country’s development prospects. However, in many cases the presence of extractive resources is associated with poor economic...
Journal Article
The Socioeconomic Roots of Conflict in the CaucasusPart of Journal Special Issue Explaining Violent Conflict
Working Paper
Investigating the fiscal resource curseThe term fiscal resource curse refers to countries’ inability to raise taxes from a broad base in the presence of natural resources. We employ a novel instrumental variable strategy to estimate the causal effect of resource revenues on non-resource...
Working Paper
Natural resources, institutions, and economic transformation in MozambiqueIn the light of Mozambique’s natural resources boom—especially its large-scale investments in mining, oil, and gas—this paper analyses the prospects for the extractive industries to contribute to economic transformation from an institutional...
Working Paper
From fiscal stabilization to economic diversificationThe management of revenues from exhaustible natural resources involves a number of challenges. In this paper, we argue that the standard policy advice to managers of resource revenues has been dominated by short-termism and the lack of a perspective...
Working Paper
Patterns of Rent-Extraction and Deployment in Developing CountriesRents tend to be relatively high in developing countries and also very fungible, so that differences in the scale of the rent and in its distribution among economic agents profoundly affect the nature of the political state and the development...
Blog
The 2022 energy shock
The price and availability of energy is fundamental to the health of the global economy. The Russia–Ukraine war is intensifying an energy shock that...
Technical Note
Government Revenue Dataset (2021): country notesThis technical note is the third in a series based on the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). The preceding notes have described in detail the variables contained within the GRD and the source selection procedures. In this technical note, we...
Blog
Can the electric vehicle revolution solve the climate crisis and create opportunities for developing countries?
Electric vehicles (EVs) are confidently expected to decarbonize road transportation, contribute substantially to the net zero agenda, and so help to...
Blog
Metals for the global energy transition: Opportunities and salutary lessons
In a series of high-level UN Roundtables, in which I participated in 2021, experts and stakeholders explored the risks and opportunities presented by...
Working Paper
Incorporation of offshore shell companies as an indicator of corruption risk in the extractive industriesWe show that the incorporation of offshore entities increases when oil and gas exploration licences are awarded. We exploit leaked data on the incorporation of shell companies and detailed information on tax havens and the awarding rounds of oil...
Working Paper
A look offshore: unpacking the routes of misinvoicing in international tradeWe study whether misinvoicing in international trade is reflected in cross-border bank accounts as reported by offshore financial centres. We show that residents hold more offshore wealth when local misinvoicing practices thrive, especially for under...
Working Paper
Power AheadEthiopia is powering ahead with an ambitious energy development strategy, highly reliant on abundant hydropower potential. A changing climate, including uncertain water supply, however, may pose a salient challenge to meeting expected targets...
Working Paper
Botswana and ZimbabweBotswana and Zimbabwe represent two cases of differential access to the world economy. Notwithstanding its lack of diversification and its reliance on a primary mineral export, Botswana has prospered while Zimbabwe has fallen into a deep crisis...
Working Paper
‘Successful’ Development Models in the MENA RegionThis paper provides a synthesis of the country cases in the Middle East and North Africa: Oman, Bahrain, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates. Although these countries differ in terms of resource endowments and economic evolution, they share common...
Working Paper
Paradise is a Bazaar? Greed, Creed, Grievance and GovernanceThis study examines the relative merits of grievance-based explanations of civil conflict that stress ‘Malthusian crises’ and ‘creed-related,’ civilizational clashes against competing propositions of greed- and governance-related explanations. The...
Working Paper
The Politics of Revenue Sharing in Resource-Dependent StatesIn a significant number of developing countries, revenue from the sale of a few natural resources accounts for the vast majority of export earnings and a large share of total government revenue. As a result, the allocation of revenue from natural...
Working Paper
How Production Firms Adapt to WarHow do production firms adapt to civil war? The answer to this question will inform the potential for economic development during and after conflict. Many businesses survive violent conflict, and in some cases even thrive. Understanding these...
Working Paper
Entrepreneurial Activity and Civil War in ColombiaAs elsewhere, the Colombian private sector has been accused of promoting or profiting from violence in the country. However, the private sector’s role in the armed conflict and the impact of conflict on entrepreneurial activity vary, as reflected by...
Working Paper
Gender Implications of Biofuels ExpansionWe use a gendered computable general equilibrium model to assess the implications of biofuels expansion in Mozambique. We compare scenarios with different gender employment intensities in producing jatropha for biodiesel. Under all scenarios...
Working Paper
The United Arab EmiratesOil was discovered in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) just 50 years ago. During that time, UAE has been able to transform itself into a rapidly modernizing country, which is fast becoming a major economic hub and a key player on the international...
Blog
Are Sovereign Wealth Funds fit for purpose in Africa?Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) have become a symbol of national success and a means for global, commercial and geopolitical influence. But how well do...
Book
Resource Abundance and Economic DevelopmentSince the 1960s the per capita incomes of the resource-poor countries have grown significantly faster than those of the resource-abundant countries. In fact, in recent years economic growth has been inversely proportional to the share of natural...
Journal Article
Foreign Direct Investment in AfricaPart of Journal Special Issue FDI to Developing Countries
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