Working Paper
A macro–micro analysis of gender segregation and job quality in Latin America
Latin America has seen vast improvements in gender educational and health equality. Favourable supply-side conditions, however, have not translated into greater gender economic equality, a process that also depends on structural economic change and...
Working Paper
Uganda’s oil
We study Uganda’s journey to become a petroleum producer and provide estimates regarding the size and timing of the oil revenues to be expected. At an average US$38 per capita per year over a 33-year period, oil revenue by itself will not be...
Blog
Can natural resources jump-start industrialization?
by
John Page
January 2019
At the end of last year, I filmed a lecture that will be part of a massive open online course (MOOC) on industrialization in Africa. The course is...
Policy Brief
Inequality dynamics in China
In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state...
Working Paper
IMF conditionality and structural reforms
The global economy, dominated by the consequences of a disastrous health crisis and international tensions, needs policy support to regain its growth dynamic. To regain an inclusive and sustainable growth dynamic, structural policies of governments...
Working Paper
Structural change in the Mozambique economy between 2007 and 2019
This study makes use of Mozambican social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the years 2007 and 2019, which we compare to uncover structural changes. Our findings reflect the significant short- and long-term challenges that Mozambican policy makers face...
Working Paper
A (time) series of unfortunate events: structural change, globalization, and the rise of occupational injuries
There is a dearth of evidence on the evolution of occupational health in the developing world and on the extent to which it has been influenced by (1) the pattern of structural transformation in these economies and (2) integration with global markets...
Working Paper
Impact of trade and structural change on the sub-Saharan African economies
Sub-Saharan African economies have experienced accelerated economic growth in the past two decades. In this paper we study the impact of trade-induced structural change on employment and value-added shares in sub-Saharan African economies. We find...
Working Paper
Structural change and the National Initiative for Human Development in Morocco
This paper aims to revisit the pace and patterns of structural change in Morocco with a renewed perspective focusing on subnational trends to document the macro patterns. In that perspective, we first build a within-country sectoral longitudinal...
Blog
Rethinking African industrialization on another Africa Industrialization Day
by
John Page
December 2018
This week I attended the 28th Africa Industrialization Day at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. Even sympathetic readers may reasonably ask...
Blog
‘Industrial’ policy in the 21st century
by
John Page
October 2018
During the past week, I participated in two international conferences. The first was the WIDER Development Conference in Helsinki: Think development -...
Working Paper
Inequality in China
In this paper we describe the major trends in China’s income inequality over the past 40 years and explain them as the outcome of four interleaved stories. The first story is a standard development story characterized by structural change, market...
Working Paper
Agricultural and rural transformations in Asian development
Over the past sixty years, most Asian countries have undergone relatively rapid agricultural transformations that helped jumpstart broader economic development. However, the changes have differed markedly in nature and speed across countries of the...
Working Paper
Employment and productivity growth in Tanzania’s service sector
Despite Tanzania’s rapid recent growth, the vast majority of employment creation has been in informal services. This paper addresses the role that different subsectors of formal and informal services have played in Tanzania’s growth. It finds that...
Working Paper
Productivity, structural change, and skills dynamics
This paper explores the contribution of structural change and the skill upgrading of the labour force to productivity. Our growth decomposition based on an original database we built for Tunisia and Turkey shows that productivity is mainly explained...
Working Paper
Leapfrogging into the unknown
This paper traces a set of major trends and future scenarios in global structural change. It argues that across multiple domains of change, developing economies are facing novel constellations of lateness and prematurity in technological and economic...
Working Paper
Industrialization in developing countries: is it related to poverty reduction?
This paper proposes an empirical framework that relates poverty reduction to production growth. We use the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database to measure the contribution to growth of productivity improvements within sectors and...
Book
Survival of the Greenest
The pathways to economic development are changing. Environmental sustainability is no longer a choice but a necessity to maintain a competitive edge in the global economy. Just like in nature, where survival hinges on adaptation, this publication...
Working Paper
India’s economic development since independence
When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with three-fifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from...
Journal Article
Structural change and poverty reduction in developing economies
This study presents an empirical framework that explores the relationship between poverty reduction and changes in the production structure of developing countries. We use the new GGDC-UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database to measure...
Working Paper
Understanding and characterizing the services sector in South Africa
The South African services sector is large and growing. This coupled with declining employment shares in manufacturing and mining (i.e. deindustrialization) suggests that South Africa is a de facto service-orientated economy. Employment patterns in...
Working Paper
Variation in structural change around the world, 1985–2015
During 1985–2015, globalization intensified the factor-endowment-related pattern of sectoral specialization. In skill-abundant developed countries, manufacturing became more skill-intensive. In land-scarce developing East Asia, labour-intensive...
Report
Inquérito às Indústrias Manufactureiras Moçambicanas 2022
Este relatório documenta os principais resultados do Inquérito às Indústrias Manufactureiras Moçambicanas 2022 (IIM 2022). O inquérito foi realizado em 2022 no âmbito do programa Crescimento inclusivo em Moçambique (IGM) com apoio do Ministério dos...
Report
Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022
This report documents the main findings of the Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022 (IIM 2022). The survey was implemented in 2022 under the Inclusive growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme with the support from the Finnish Ministry for...