DUCC – development under climate change

Climate change is likely to remain a serious issue for decades to come if not indefinitely. One of the key tasks for assisting policy makers in developing countries address the uncertainties of climate change is translating scientific and biophysical processes into economic outcomes. UNU-WIDER’s DUCC – Development Under Climate Change project is particularly aimed at addressing this challenge by using an analytical framework that traces the economic implications of climate change.

The framework used in the project takes into account a wide range of factors including production of hydropower, agricultural yield, water supply/demand balance, and the costs of maintaining infrastructure. These impacts then serve as inputs into an economy-wide model of the country in question which aids the assessment of economic impacts and policy options.

Team

Focal point: Channing Arndt

Communications: Annett Victorero

141 articles, publications, projects, experts...

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    Parallel session
    Climate change
    Journal Article
    Producing Biofuels in Low-Income Countries

    This paper jointly evaluates the greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts from producing biofuels in Tanzania. Sequentially-linked models capture natural resource constraints; emissions from land use change; economywide growth linkages; and...

    In the media
    A study finds high risk of severe water stress in Asia by 2050

    MIT News interviewed UNU-WIDER’s Research Fellow Channing Arndt for an article about a recent study that estimates a “high risk of severe water stress” in the next 35 years in Asia.

    Journal Article
    Characterizing wind power resource reliability in southern Africa

    Part of Journal Special Issue Prospects for Renewable Energy in Africa

    Journal Article
    The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa

    Part of Journal Special Issue Prospects for Renewable Energy in Africa

    Journal Article
    Prospects for grid-connected solar PV in Kenya

    Part of Journal Special Issue Prospects for Renewable Energy in Africa

    About
    DUCC – Development under Climate Change

    The ‘Development under Climate Change’ (DUCC) project began implementation in 2010. At that time, there were remarkably few researchers and government officials in developing countries who had considered in detail the interactions between climate...

    Research uptake
    Assessing the implications of climate change in Vietnam

    As part of the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project, UNU-WIDER conducted the first ever comprehensive assessment of the implications of climate change for growth and development prospects for Vietnam in collaboration with Central Institute...

    Video
    Mitigation Policy in South Africa

    Carbon intensity and carbon taxes.

    Video
    Strenghtening Research Capacity

    Climate change and research in developing countries.

    Video
    Mitigation Policy in Carbon-Intensive Economies

    The case of South Africa

    Video
    Evaluating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Southern Africa

    South Africa and Mozambique

    Research uptake
    Development under climate change in Tanzania, Malawi and Ghana

    UNU-WIDER presented the results of a detailed study of food security and climate change for in Tanzania to an audience of more than 50 government officials.

    Research uptake
    Evaluating South Africa's environmental policy

    UNU-WIDER has developed an energy-economic model together with the National Treasury in South Africa that has been applied by Treasury staff to evaluate national policy and development strategies as well as to a range of policy issues, including the...

    Research uptake
    UN selects DUCC as a ‘project to watch’ as part of Big Data Climate Challenge
    Research uptake
    Assesing policy options in Mozambique

    In Mozambique, UNU-WIDER has engaged principally with the Ministry of Planning and Development (MPD). The Institute delivered, in Portuguese, impact and policy option summaries to the top level of the civil service in the MPD, based on information...

    Journal Article
    The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture Demand in the Volta Basin and other Basin Systems in Ghana

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Optimum Fisheries Management under Climate Variability

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Tenure Insecurity, Climate Variability and Renting out Decisions among Female Small-Holder Farmers in Ethiopia

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Modeling Fuel Choice among Households in Northern Cameroon

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Ghana

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Article
    Introduction to the Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries

    Part of Journal Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Journal Special Issue
    Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries

    Under the very large majority of combinations of global mitigation efforts (emissions scenarios) and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, a considerable amount of warming appears to be built into the global climate system. For...

    Blog
    Malawi's Farm Subsidy Benefits the Poor but Doesn't Come Cheap

    Malawi’s farm input subsidy benefits the poor and can be part of a viable national development strategy. Agriculture is Malawi’s main economic sector...

    Research uptake
    Strengthening Climate Change Research in Africa

    Introduction There is growing demand for climate change research in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the capacity needed to undertake this research by African scholars is sometimes lacking. As such, the research is often conducted by external consultants...

    Research uptake
    Carbon Taxes and Low Carbon Development in South Africa

    Introduction South Africa is one of the world’s most carbon-intensive developing countries. Recognizing this, the South African government committed to substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2025, in part through the introduction of...

    Video
    Evaluating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Southern Africa

    Adam Schlosser gives a presentation on 'Quantifying the Likelihood of Climate Change over the Zambezi River Basin: A Hybrid Approach'. Video of UNU-WIDER Sept 2012: Plenary 2 - Adam Schlosser Kenneth Strzepek, gives a presentation on 'Evaluating...

    News
    UN selects DUCC as a ‘project to watch’ as part of Big Data Climate Challenge

    The United Nations selected UNU-WIDER’s Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project as ‘one to watch’ in its ‘Big Data Climate Challenge’ that is part of the build up to the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit on 23 September 2014 at UN...

    Research uptake
    Assessing policy options in Mozambique
    About
    DUCC contributors

    The DUCC project has produced nearly 50 journal articles, WIDER Working Papers, and reports and has engaged nearly 100 researchers across the world. Below we mention only some of the core contributors to the project. Finn Tarp is the Director of UN...

    Journal Article
    The Economy-wide Impacts and Risks of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program

    We estimate the impact of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program using an economy-wide approach. This approach yields benefit-cost ratios about 60% higher than existing partial equilibrium studies, a result of our accounting for indirect benefits...

    Journal Article
    Climate Uncertainty and Economic Development

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Article
    Infrastructure and Climate Change

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Article
    Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Article
    Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Article
    Informed Selection of Future Climates

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Article
    An Uncertainty Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    Journal Special Issue
    Climate Change and the Zambezi River Valley

    The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions that will improve the understanding of the impacts of climate change in developing countries. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project...

    Blog
    Climate Policy and Developing Country Interests
    Placeholder

    There are a series of questions to which we need answers if we are to implement climate change policies that help avoid negative effects. Three key...

    Working Paper
    Cost and Impact Analysis of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Vietnam

    The Development under Climate Change research effort provides a basis for determining quantitative impacts on infrastructure from climate change. This paper provides results of an analysis of sea level rise impacts on road infrastructure in Vietnam...

    News
    UN Selects Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) as a Project to Watch

    The United Nations has announced that it has selected UNU-WIDER’s Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project as ‘one to watch’ in its ‘Big Data Climate Challenge’ that is part of the build up to the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit on 23 September 2014 at UN Headquarters, New York.

    Working Paper
    A Hybrid Approach to Incorporating Climate Change and Variability into Climate Scenario for Impact Assessments

    Traditional ‘delta-change’ approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This...

    Working Paper
    Changes in Climatic Factors and Malaria in Uganda

    The study examines the relationship between climatic factors and reported malaria cases using data from 12 districts in Uganda over the period 2000-2011. A panel dataset comprising temperature, temperature standard deviation; minimum humidity...

    Research Uptake
    Climate modelling for improving development strategy – The case of South Africa

    Through the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project UNU-WIDER supported efforts by the government of South Africa to develop an integrated approach to assess the effects of climate change on the national economy. Climate analysis for economic...

    Working Paper
    The Economywide Impacts and Risks of Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Programme

    We estimate the impact of Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Programme using an economywide approach. We find potentially substantial net benefits with indirect benefits accounting for about two-fifths of total benefits. Due to these indirect benefits, the...

    Working Paper
    Prospects for Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic in Kenya

    Capacity planners in developing countries frequently use screening curves and other system-independent metrics such as levelized cost of energy to guide investment decisions. This can lead to spurious conclusions when evaluating intermittent power...

    Panel discussion
    Global Development Network 15th Annual Development Conference: Structural Transformation in Africa and Beyond

    UNU-WIDER Special Session: Thursday 19 June, 2014, 16:00-17:30 Lessons from UNU-WIDER research: Research and Communication on Foreign Aid; Development Under Climate Change; and Learning to Compete

    Thu, 19 June 2014
    International Conference Centre, Castle Rd, Accra, Ghana
    Past event
    Journal Article
    Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi

    Malawi confronts a growth and development imperative that it must meet in a context characterised by rising temperatures and deep uncertainty about trends in precipitation. This article evaluates the potential implications of climate change for...

    Journal Article
    Introducing carbon taxes in South Africa

    South Africa is considering introducing a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Following a discussion of the motivations for considering a carbon tax, we evaluate potential impacts using a dynamic economywide model linked to an energy...

    Blog
    The Nordic Contribution to Development
    Placeholder

    26 March 2014 Tony Addison The Nordic countries have a long-standing commitment to development, and their work in peace-building has taken Nordic...

    Working Paper
    Modeling Fuel Choice Among Households in Northern Cameroon

    The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence the household’s probability to switch from firewood to clean fuels in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns...

    Working Paper
    Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture Demand in the Volta Basin and Other Basin Systems in Ghana

    An assessment of the impacts of projected climate change on water availability and crop production in the Volta Basin and the southwestern and coastal basin systems of Ghana has been undertaken as a component of the impacts and adaptation study for...

    Working Paper
    The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa Countries

    Climate change scenarios for many Sub-Saharan African countries including Ghana indicate that temperatures will increase while rainfall will either increase or decrease. The potential impact of climate change on economic systems is well-known...

    Working Paper
    The Impact of Climate Change on Pastoral Production Systems

    This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on a household level survey in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of...

    Working Paper
    Climate Variability and Household Welfare in Northern Ghana

    Climate variability poses a major risk to agricultural incomes in Africa. In Ghana, most of the country’s poor people live in the north and households find it difficult to hold back their productive assets during the lean season. This study...

    Working Paper
    Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy

    Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rainfed agriculture, hydropower, and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by...

    Working Paper
    Producing Biofuels in Low-Income Countries

    This paper evaluates the greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts from producing biofuels in Tanzania. Sequentially-linked models capture natural resource constraints; emissions from land use change; economywide growth linkages; and household...

    Working Paper
    The Effect of Climate Change on Economic Growth

    This paper is a contribution to the empirics of climate change and its effect on sustainable economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data on two climate variables, temperature and precipitation, and employing panel cointegration techniques, we...

    Working Paper
    Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi

    Malawi confronts a development imperative in a context of rising temperatures and deep uncertainty about precipitation trends. We evaluate the implications of climate change for overall growth and development prospects to 2050. We focus on three...

    Journal Article
    Measuring the Carbon Intensity of the South African Economy

    We estimate the carbon intensity of industries, products and households in South Africa using data from a high resolution supply-use table. Direct and indirect carbon usage is measured using multiplier methods that capture inter-industry linkages and...

    Working Paper
    The Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Solar Resources in Southern Africa

    Climate change is an issue that requires global attention and co-operation. As climate science develops an understanding of changes to the future climate state, policy makers and engineering project planners beg to know what claims can be made on the...

    Working Paper
    Characterizing Wind Power Resource Reliability in Southern Africa

    Producing electricity from wind is attractive because it provides a clean, low-maintenance power supply. However, wind resource is intermittent on various time scales, thus introducing variability in power output that is difficult for electric grid...

    Research Brief
    The Cost of Climate Change in Vietnam

    Over the period 2007–50 climate change is predicted to cause Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate to fall between 0.02 and 0.10 percentage points. While small relative to GDP, absolute loss levels due to climate change are significant at between US$6-15$...

    Research Brief
    The Price of Inaction - Climate Change in Mozambique

    All climate scenarios considered result in reduced national welfare, if no reforms are enacted. If no policy changes are implemented, the present value of climate change costs up to 2050 are between US2 and US7 billion, for the scenarios considered...

    In the media
    Africa: Climate Change and Economic Development

    allAfrica, 23 May 2013

    Blog
    Imperfect Data Increases Uncertainty
    Placeholder

    9 May 2013 Carl-Gustav Lindén The world is a complex place where risk and uncertainty are an everyday challenge. Decision makers at all levels say...

    Working Paper
    Prioritizing Rural Investments in Africa

    Prioritizing public investments requires information on relative returns that are difficult to derive from disparate evaluation studies. This paper presents a ‘hybrid’ approach that combines ex post evaluation data with an economy-wide model for...

    Working Paper
    Optimum Fisheries Management Under Climate Variability

    In most coastal developing countries, the artisanal fisheries sector is managed as a common pool resource. As a result, such fisheries are overcapitalized and overfished. In Ghana, in addition to anthropogenic factors, there is evidence of rising...

    Working Paper
    Climate Uncertainty and Economic Development

    We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in the Zambeze River Valley. The economic modeling relies on an economywide modeling approach. Taking a distribution of shocks as inputs, we create hybrid frequency...

    Working Paper
    Infrastructure and Climate Change

    The African Development Bank has called for US$40 billion per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these...

    Working Paper
    Regional Climate Change of the Greater Zambezi River Basin

    Projections of regional changes in seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation for the eastern and western Zambezi River Basin regions are presented. These projections are cast in a probabilistic context based on a numerical hybridization...

    Working Paper
    Impact of Climate Change on Crops, Irrigation and Hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin

    The past reliance on historical observed weather patterns for future investment in basic infrastructure planning (e.g., irrigation schemes, hydropower plants, roads, etc.) has been questioned considerably in recent years. For this reason, efforts to...

    Working Paper
    Assessing the Risk of Cyclone-Induced Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise in Mozambique

    This article considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the port cities of Maputo and Beira in Mozambique. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the potential maximum storm surge level for the current 100-year...

    Workshop
    Climate change impacts and adaptation options in South Africa

    Workshop organized by the South African National Biodiversity Institute to discuss climate change impacts and adaptation options in South Africa.

    Tue, 26 March 2013 – Wed, 27 March 2013
    Cape Town, South Africa
    Past event
    Journal Article
    Biofuels and Economic Development

    Biofuels could offer new economic opportunities for low-income countries. We use a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Tanzania to evaluate different biofuels production options and estimate their impacts on growth and poverty...

    Blog
    From The Editor's Desk (December 2012)
    Placeholder

    Tony Addison This year has rushed by at speed. For UNU-WIDER it’s been a year of big successes. We will have published some 110 working papers by the...

    Working Paper
    Infrastructure and Climate Change

    This paper presents the results of the current study on the impact of climate change on the road and building infrastructure within South Africa. The approach builds upon previous work associated with the UNU-WIDER Development under Climate Change...

    Blog
    Climate Change and Development Policy
    Placeholder

    James Thurlow UNU-WIDER recently hosted an international conference on ‘Climate Change and Development Policy’. We were motivated by the apparent...

    Blog
    Climate Change and Development Policy: Competing Aims?
    Placeholder

    Yongfu Huang The climate change crisis and development needs of the world's poor require us to acknowledge the necessity and urgency for both...

    Working Paper
    The Economic Costs of Climate Change

    Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economywide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the...

    Working Paper
    Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated...

    Working Paper
    Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam

    Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam’s development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential...

    Working Paper
    Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam

    Vietnam is among the countries that are assumed to be highly affected by the impacts of climate change through sea level rise; increased temperature and changes in precipitation resulting in changes in crop water requirements and yields; and changes...

    Journal Article
    A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Economic Development under Climate Change

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Climate Change and Roads

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Journal Article
    Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment

    Part of Journal Special Issue Climate Change and Economic Development

    Displaying 96 of 141 results

    Context

    Main subject

    Theme: Past, 2010-11

    Keywords