Working Paper
Quantifying the impacts of expanding social protection on efficiency and equity
A large informal sector is a challenge for developing countries building up social protection systems. Expanding social safety nets reduces poverty, but financing them can increase the tax burden, potentially reducing availability of formal sector...
Working Paper
Tax-benefit microsimulation and income redistribution in Ecuador
The aim of this paper is to explore the redistributive effects of taxes and benefits in Ecuador using two different approaches: direct use of reported taxes and benefits in household survey data, and use of simulated taxes and benefits obtained from...
Working Paper
Policy transparency in the public sector
A well functioning system of public service delivery requires the definition and measurement of eligibility for services to be determined in a transparent and non-discretionary manner. This paper uses the case of the Productive Social Safety Net in...
Report
SOUTHMOD Country Report Viet Nam - VNMOD v1.0
View the latest VNMOD country report here. This report documents VNMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Viet Nam. This work was carried out by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) in collaboration with KU Leuven and the project...
Working Paper
Unemployment insurance and income protection in Ecuador
This paper explores the role of the recently introduced unemployment insurance benefit (seguro de desempleo) in protecting incomes in case of unemployment in Ecuador. We use ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador, to simulate...
Working Paper
The distributional impact of tax and benefit systems in six African countries
This paper assesses the effects of public policies on income taxes and benefits in six African countries. The comparative analysis focuses on the distribution and composition of incomes and assesses the effect of these policies on inequality and...
Working Paper
Tax-benefit microsimulation model in developing countries
This study aims to expand the use of tax-benefit microsimulation tools in Indonesia. In particular, it reviews the feasibility of expanding SOUTHMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model being applied in developing countries that was developed based...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Bolivia - BOLMOD v2.0
This report documents BOLMOD, the SOUTHMOD micrososimulation model developed for Bolivia. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model takes advantage of these different provisions, and the database on which...
Working Paper
Evaluating the impact of the 2023–2024 personal income tax reform in Rwanda
Establishing an equitable and efficient tax system is essential for reducing poverty, combating inequality, and fostering sustainable economic growth. Rwanda’s government has recognized this and implemented significant changes to the personal income...
Technical Note
Dealing with the oversimulation of taxes and benefits in SOUTHMOD microsimulation models
SOUTHMOD tax-benefit microsimulation models may in some cases oversimulate taxes or benefits, generating greater expenditure, a greater number of beneficiaries, or greater amounts of taxes or taxpayers than reported in administrative data. Drawing on...
Working Paper
Tax-benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda
This paper assesses the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Rwanda. Tax-benefit microsimulation can be used to explore ways in which national development goals can be achieved in a cost-effective manner, and to assess...
Working Paper
Social protection for working-age women in Tanzania
Tanzania has expanded its social protection framework significantly over the past decade, but the country continues to grapple with important gender inequalities. This paper examines, first, the evolution and effects of Tanzania’s social protection...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Viet Nam - VNMOD v3.3
This report documents VNMOD, the SOUTHMOD model developed for Viet Nam. This work has been carried out by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) in collaboration with UNU-WIDER and SASPRI. The results presented in this report are...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Ecuador - ECUAMOD v4.2
This report documents ECUAMOD, the SOUTHMOD micrososimulation model developed for Ecuador. It describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model takes advantage of these different provisions, and the database on...
Blog
Behind the scenes: Meet our tax-benefit microsimulation team in Viet Nam!
by
Anna Toppari
May 2022
How can Vietnamese policymakers improve their policy choices related to social protection and tax policies? Who are the experts providing evidence on...
Working Paper
Microsimulation approaches to studying shocks and social protection in selected developing economies
This paper calculates automatic stabilization in Ghana, South Africa, and Ecuador to explain income cushioning amid income and demand shocks. Fiscal policies within these countries are also stress tested to gauge welfare contingencies and insurance...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Ecuador - ECUAMOD v1.5
View the latest ECUAMOD country report here. This report documents ECUAMOD, the SOUTHMOD micrososimulation model developed for Ecuador. The report describes the different tax–benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model takes advantage of...
Technical Note
Iterative proportional fitting for reweighting input data in SOUTHMOD microsimulation models
This note describes how the counterfactual datasets in the working paper by Lastunen et al. (2021) have been reweighted, for each country analysed, to the ‘pre-crisis’ time point of 31 March 2020. The procedure consists of five main steps. The note...
Working Paper
The effect of fiscal drag on income distribution and work incentives
Although the effect of fiscal drag is well studied in the industrialized world, empirical evidence from developing economies remains limited. Against this backdrop, this study aims to explore the effect of fiscal drag on income distribution and work...
Journal Article
The impact of indirect tax on income distribution and poverty in Tanzania
This study analyses the impacts of indirect tax benefits policy reforms on income distribution and poverty in Tanzania by applying a standard static microsimulation model TAZMOD v1.8. The simulations model two indirect tax reforms involving changes...
Blog
Ecuador’s social protection system failed during the pandemic: It needs a rethink
by
H. Xavier Jara, Lourdes Montesdeoca, Iva V. Tasseva
March 2021
Household incomes in Ecuador were badly hit by the pandemic, despite the government’s emergency grant to families. H Xavier Jara Tamayo (University of...
Working Paper
Simulating personal income tax in South Africa using administrative data and survey data
In this paper we explore South Africa’s personal income tax system using two microsimulation models. The first, SAMOD, simulates personal income tax and social benefits using a dataset derived from the nationally representative National Income...
Technical Note
Feasibility study: simulating the impacts of farm subsidies on poverty and inequality in African countries
Agricultural subsidies may have significant productive and distributional consequences, and policy-makers need to be able to assess these impacts as a part of the overall tax and benefit policy. Microsimulation models offer a tool for such analysis...
Journal Article
The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax–beneft policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
By combining household survey data before and during the COVID-19 pandemic with detailed tax-benefit simulations, this paper quantifies the distributional effects of COVID-19 in Ecuador and the role of tax-benefit policies in mitigating the immediate...
Technical Note
Integration of indirect taxation to GHAMOD
This note, with emphasis on VAT and excise taxes, illustrates how indirect taxes are modelled in the context of GHAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ghana. GHAMOD is similar to the EUROMOD base platform, and its built-in Statistics...
Technical Note
Top income adjustments and tax reforms in Ecuador: an application of ECUAMOD
This technical note has been produced alongside a WIDER working paper assessing the effects on income inequality and income tax simulations of adjusting top incomes of employees in survey data based on administrative tax records in Ecuador. The paper...
Technical Note
Unemployment insurance and income protection in Ecuador: an application of ECUAMOD
This note has been produced alongside a WIDER working paper assessing the effect of the Unemployment Insurance benefit on income protection in Ecuador. The aim of this note is to describe the methodology used to assess the effect of the Unemployment...
Blog
Microsimulation models for developing countries: An interview with Jukka Pirttilä
by
Heikki Laurinolli
March 2017
The University of Tampere is participating in an international project in which a microsimulation model is being drafted for the evaluation of the...
Working Paper
Exploring options to deepen and broaden the personal income tax base in South Africa
In this paper we explore options for augmenting South Africa’s personal income tax revenue using two microsimulation models: PITMOD simulates the personal income tax system and is underpinned by a dataset comprising a full extract of anonymized...
Blog
Developing a microsimulation model for Mozambique – from inception to impact
by
Vanda Castelo, José Cardoso, Finório Castigo, Gemma Wright
November 2018
The tax-benefit microsimulation model developed for Mozambique, MOZMOD, has proved to be valuable in analysing the impacts and budget implications of...
Working Paper
Fuel subsidies and income redistribution in Ecuador
This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of a potential elimination of such subsidies. Our analysis makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation...
Working Paper
Effects of an education reform on household poverty and inequality
The level of income can be directly inferred from the level of education, making education an important variable as a key determinant of better livelihoods and poverty alleviation. However, in most developing countries education is not accessible to...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Ecuador - ECUAMOD v1.4
View the latest ECUAMOD country report here. This report documents ECUAMOD, the SOUTHMOD micrososimulation model developed for Ecuador. This work was carried out by the ISER in collaboration with the Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales and UNU...
Research Brief
Balancing tax collection and equality
In a democratic system, taxation is a critical part of the social contract between the state and its citizens. The tax system can be used to help address the unacceptably high levels of poverty, inequality, and unemployment in South Africa. An...
Working Paper
Tax–benefit microsimulation modelling in Zanzibar
This working paper explores the feasibility of developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model in Zanzibar using the EUROMOD microsimulation software. We review Zanzibar’s tax and benefit arrangements and the potential household survey dataset...
Report
SOUTHMOD country report Ecuador - ECUAMOD v1.2
View the latest ECUAMOD country report here. This report documents ECUAMOD, the SOUTHMOD micrososimulation model developed for Ecuador. This work was carried out by the ISER in collaboration with the Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales and UNU...
Working Paper
Modelling value-added tax (VAT) in South Africa
Using SAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for South Africa, this paper examines the joint distributional impact of the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate and increases in benefit amounts in 2018. Although poverty and inequality did not...
Working Paper
Microsimulation analysis of the impact of indirect tax benefits on income distribution and poverty alleviation in Tanzania
This paper analyses the impacts of indirect tax policy reforms on income distribution and poverty in Tanzania by applying a standard static microsimulation model TAZMOD v1.8. The simulations model two indirect tax reforms involving changes to the...
Working Paper
Financing the Zambia social cash transfer scale-up
This paper assesses the effects on poverty and inequality of the alternative targeting approaches that Zambia’s Social Cash Transfer programme could take as its expansion continues during the period of the country’s Seventh National Development Plan...
Working Paper
National Care System in Uruguay
In this paper, we analyse two specific policies that make up the National Care System, a social policy being implemented in Uruguay. Through the calibration of a static tax benefit model, we estimate the distributive impact of the expansion of...
Article
Feasibility of tax-benefit microsimulation in Ghana
The technical paper introduced in this article studies the feasibility of building a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ghana. The main Ghanaian tax and benefit policies are reviewed, followed by a discussion of data requirements. We conclude that the Ghana Living Standards Survey, wave 6 (GLSS6), forms a fairly promising basis for tax-benefit microsimulation. Ghana has a need not only for modelling, but also building a more comprehensive tax and benefit system.
Working Paper
The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax–benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador
This paper makes use of tax–benefit microsimulation techniques to quantify the distributional effects of COVID-19 in Ecuador and the role of tax–benefit policies in mitigating the immediate impact of the economic shocks. Our results show a dramatic...