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Mozambique in post-election turmoil: Economic policies that could make a difference
Turmoil following presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique has been severe. Preliminary official results from the 2024 elections...
Read more on the programme website, available in English and Portuguese.
The central goal of this collaborative programme is to support inclusive growth in Mozambique — growth that substantially improves the living standards of the country’s population over the long term.
To address ongoing challenges and make real progress, two Mozambican institutions — the Ministry of Economics and Finance, and the University Eduardo Mondlane — join forces together with two institutions with extensive international networks and experience, UNU-WIDER and the University of Copenhagen.
Together the leadership and staff of the four partner institutions have decades of experience in generating the evidence necessary for effective policy formulation, designing actual policies, and capacity-building. Joint efforts are carried out with the aim of increasing analytical capabilities and strengthening policy-making in the country. Through the project, partners work to seize new opportunities, while scaling-up past efforts and aiming for major broad-based impact on the welfare of the Mozambican people.
Key working areas:
- employment creation and protection of vulnerable groups
- maintaining long-term macroeconomic balance
- furthering structural transformation
- improving socioeconomic information systems for monitoring and evaluation
Background
Two decades have passed since democratic elections ushered in a new era in Mozambique. In that period, a great deal has been accomplished with nearly all development indicators registering improvements, often substantial, relative to their position in the mid-1990s. Progress has nevertheless brought new challenges.
In the early post-war period, the development task was comparatively simple. The overriding aims were to rebuild social and economic infrastructure, embed macroeconomic stability, and promote both domestic and foreign investment. As many of these post-conflict goals have been realized, the complexity of policy issues facing government has increased exponentially, reflecting the surge in the breadth and depth of economic, social, and political activities.
There is a strong potential for the country to continue registering rapid economic progress in years to come. Mozambique clearly has the possibility of leaping to middle-income status from both economic and social perspectives within the next two decades. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that this potential will be grasped. Research and further capacity are critical to setting down the right path.
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Blog
Understanding Mozambique’s social protection system in the context of recurring shocks – perspectives from the fieldEffective social protection programmes that meet local needs can significantly enhance wellbeing and break the cycle of structural poverty among the...
Journal Article
The evolution of inequality in Mozambique 1996/97–2019/20After decades of war, Mozambique experienced sustained economic growth and poverty reduction from the mid-1990s. However, these positive dynamics started to revert from 2015. Meanwhile, inequality stagnated in the period 1996/97–2008/09, before...
Blog
Budget credibility in Mozambique – challenges and solutionsMozambique ranks in the bottom 20 of the human development index, with nearly two-thirds of its population (18.9 million people) living below the USD...
Journal Article
The gendered impact of digital jobs platformsTHIS ARTICLE IS ON EARLY VIEW | This study examines the impact of digital labor-market platforms on jobs outcomes using a randomized encouragement design embedded in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican technical-vocational college graduates. We...
Blog
Studying food price dynamics in Mozambique – insights from the fieldIn Mozambique, analysing how and why food prices change is crucial. Understanding the dynamics of price formation is fundamental to mitigate the...
Journal Article
Firm profitability and forced wage labour in Portuguese AfricaARTICLE IS ON EARLY VIEW | Forced wage labour (FWL) in colonial-era Portuguese Africa came to encompass a majority of working age men and persisted until the early 1960s. On the basis of reconstructed financial records from the Sena Sugar Estates in...
Working Paper
Informed job entryHigh youth unemployment rates and long school-to-work transition times pose a threat to low-income countries’ sustainable growth prospects. Using a randomized control trial experiment conducted in Mozambique, we find strong evidence that providing...
Working Paper
The legacy of coercive cotton cultivation in colonial MozambiqueWe examine the long-term impact of forced labour on individual risk behaviour and economic decisions. For that, we focus on a policy of coercive cotton cultivation enforced in colonial Mozambique between 1926 and 1961. We combine archival sources...
Working Paper
Decomposing budget credibilityBudget reliability is the first pillar of Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA). In this study, we construct an expansion of the PEFA government response accuracy indicator and test its decomposition, with an application to the...
Journal Article
Digital labour platforms as shock absorbersARTICLE IS ON EARLY VIEW | Digital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the past decade, enabling significant expansion of gig work worldwide. We interrogate the critique that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate shocks for registered...
Blog
Can agriculture be the key to Mozambican prosperity?: Report from the 2023 IGM Annual Conference
More than 70% of the Mozambican population depends on subsistence agriculture. As such, the agriculture sector is undoubtedly of fundamental...
Journal Article
Employment mismatches drive expectational errors among Mozambican graduatesBiased beliefs about future labor-market earnings are commonplace. Based on a longitudinal survey of graduate work transitions in Mozambique, this study assesses the contribution of employment mismatches to a large positive gap between expected (ex...
Working Paper
Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in MozambiqueFollowing the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated...
Working Paper
Sheepskin effects and heterogenous wage-setting behaviourUsing a unique panel survey of final-year undergraduates at six of the largest universities in Mozambique, we study the wage premium associated with completing an undergraduate degree. Conditional on a very rich set of controls, including pre-degree...
Working Paper
Institutions and governance in MozambiqueUsing publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression...
Working Paper
What explains the disaster preparedness of micro-enterprises?Worldwide, enterprises are hit by disasters such as cyclones and floods. Despite being impacted negatively, most enterprises do not prepare for future disasters. This study aims at understanding the determinants of enterprises’ disaster preparedness...
Book Chapter
The Changing Dependence on Donor CountriesPart of Book Mozambique at a Fork in the Road
Book Chapter
Obstacles to the Provision of Healthcare ServicesPart of Book Mozambique at a Fork in the Road
Book Chapter
The Relative Neglect of Agriculture in MozambiquePart of Book Mozambique at a Fork in the Road
Book
Mozambique at a Fork in the RoadFew countries have experienced as many political and economic changes as Mozambique. A vast and diverse country, it faced a particularly difficult start after a long period of colonial dominance followed by a deadly war that formally ended only in...
Blog
How institutions matter in MozambiqueLaunched in 2015 and completed in 2022, the Institutional Diagnostic Project aimed at identifying institutional factors that affect development...
Journal Article
Africa’s lockdown dilemmaAs the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded, sub-Saharan African countries faced the dilemma of how to minimize viral transmission without adversely affecting the poor. This study proposes an index of lockdown readiness, taking into account housing conditions...
Working Paper
Structural change in the Mozambique economy between 2007 and 2019This study makes use of Mozambican social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the years 2007 and 2019, which we compare to uncover structural changes. Our findings reflect the significant short- and long-term challenges that Mozambican policy makers face...
Journal Article
Educational expansion and shifting private returns to educationWe examine how returns to education have evolved in the context of post-conflict reconstruction and economic growth in Mozambique over the period 1996–2015. We show that private rates of return to education have declined at lower levels of schooling...
Report
Inquérito às Indústrias Manufactureiras Moçambicanas 2022Este relatório documenta os principais resultados do Inquérito às Indústrias Manufactureiras Moçambicanas 2022 (IIM 2022). O inquérito foi realizado em 2022 no âmbito do programa Crescimento inclusivo em Moçambique (IGM) com apoio do Ministério dos...
Report
Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022This report documents the main findings of the Survey of Mozambican Manufacturing Firms 2022 (IIM 2022). The survey was implemented in 2022 under the Inclusive growth in Mozambique (IGM) programme with the support from the Finnish Ministry for...
Blog
Partnerships with Global South governments improve development policy and support achieving the Global Goals
In Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and elsewhere, UNU-WIDER is on the ground to support national development plans, collect and create...
Journal Article
Evolution of multidimensional poverty in crisis-ridden MozambiqueMozambique experienced important reductions in the poverty rate until recently, before two major natural disasters hit, an armed insurgency stroke in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and the country started suffering from a hidden debt crisis...
Working Paper
Absolute or relative: perceptions of inequality among young adults in MozambiqueDifferent concepts of inequality lead to different positions in discussions about whether economic growth leads to increasing inequality. This study investigates how over 1,100 young adults in Mozambique perceive inequality and whether their...
Working Paper
Migration out of povertyInternal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique’s most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses...
Blog
Assessing the health of the private sector in Mozambique: Key findings from the IGM Annual Conference 2022
Since 2016, the private sector in Mozambique has faced several external shocks, including terrorism in Cabo Delgado, Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, the...
Working Paper
The impact of COVID-19 on urban informal workers in MaputoInformal self-employed traders in developing countries are vulnerable to shocks as they often lack access to social insurance or formal finance. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on these urban traders in the capital of...
Working Paper
Effects of the COVID-19 crisis on household food consumption and child nutrition in MozambiqueThis study investigates the short-term impacts of an aggregate socioeconomic shock on household food consumption and children’s nutrition using the case of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mozambique. In response to the economic downturn, households are...
Working Paper
Structural features of the Mozambique economy through the lens of a 2019 social accounting matrixThis study presents and discusses structural features of the Mozambique economy through the lens of a recently constructed 2019 social accounting matrix (SAM). This is an important reality check of the SAM construction process since it brings...
Working Paper
Determinants of gender gaps in youth employment in urban MozambiqueIn this study, we explore the correlates of the employment gender gap among urban youth in Mozambique. Young people are confronted with simultaneous decisions about education, work and family life influenced by social norms around gender roles. Using...
Working Paper
The evolution of inequality in MozambiqueAfter decades of war, ending in 1992, Mozambique embarked on a path of sustained economic growth and substantial poverty reduction. However, these positive dynamics started to revert from 2015, with per capita growth rates getting close to zero and...
Technical Note
Documenting the 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for MozambiqueThis technical note describes how the 2015 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Mozambique was updated. New Household Budget Survey data availability, changes in the economic structure as captured by the underlying Supply and Use Tables and National...
Journal Article
Can information correct optimistic wage expectations?Forward-looking expectations are central to job search but often inaccurate. To test whether public information can help correct beliefs, we embed an experiment in a longitudinal survey of Mozambican graduates. We quantify responses of own-earning...
Journal Article
Local governance quality and law complianceIn sub-Saharan Africa, many micro and small enterprises do not (or at least only partially) comply with official rules and regulations. Given that low compliance rates impede economic growth and human development, it is essential to identify...
Blog
Digital platforms and job search: Experimental evidence from MozambiqueDigital technologies can be deployed to improve job search, but their effectiveness in practice is disrupted. This column uses experimental data to...
Working Paper
Digital labour platforms as shock absorbersDigital labour platforms have grown five-fold over the last decade, enabling significant expansion in gig work worldwide. We interrogate the criticism that these platforms tend to amplify aggregate economic shocks for registered users (workers)...
Journal Article
Extending multidimensional poverty identificationIn the widely-used class of multidimensional poverty measures introduced by Alkire and Foster (2011), dimension-specific weights combined with a single cut-off parameter play a fundamental role in identifying who is multidimensionally poor. This...
Working Paper
Labour market effects of digital matching platformsCan digital labour market platforms reduce search frictions in either formal or informal labour markets? We study this question using a randomized experiment embedded in a tracer study of the work transitions of graduates from technical and...
Journal Article
The impact of COVID-19 on consumption poverty in MozambiqueThis study assesses the impact of COVID-19 on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty, we rely on existing estimated macroeconomic impacts. We assume two main impact channels: direct income...
Journal Article
The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in MozambiqueThis study assesses the economic costs of COVID-19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations...
Blog
How can research help Least Developed Countries achieve sustainable development?
The next decade is a make-or-break for the world’s most vulnerable countries. To tackle the unprecedented confluence of COVID-19, climate, and...
Journal Article
Beyond access to basic services: perspectives on social health determinants of MozambiqueA wide range of evidence shows systematic differences in health status among social groups, which are associated with unequal exposure to and distribution of the social determinants of health (SDH). However, the role of these SDH has not been studied...
Working Paper
Informed participation: the effects of information treatment on panel non-responseThis paper builds on a longitudinal school-to-work transition phone survey experiment to quantify the effects on attrition of communicating with participants. Specifically, we study the impact of sending topically relevant information on job market...
Working Paper
The saga and limits of public financial managementAt independence in 1975, the Frelimo government took over public administration from the colonial system and started to transform it. The public financial management (PFM) system was adapted to the central planning and management of the economy in...
Working Paper
The relative neglect of agriculture in MozambiqueThis paper explores agricultural performance of Mozambique, its institutional weaknesses, and the underlying factors that underpin an unsatisfactory performance during many decades. We point to the role of systemic political instability and violence...
Working Paper
Local governance quality and law complianceUsing panel data of manufacturing enterprises in Mozambique between 2012 and 2017, we investigate how changes in perceived quality of governance are related to firms’ law compliance. Controlling for firm-level unobserved heterogeneity, we look at...
Research Brief
Será o Ensino Técnico-Profissional (ETP) uma solução para o desemprego jovem?O Ensino Técnico-Profissional (ETP) é frequentemente visto como uma solução milagrosa que resolve questões que vão desde o desemprego juvenil até à mudança estrutural relacionada com o mercado de trabalho. Isto é particularmente verdade para os...
Research Brief
Is technical and vocational education and training a solution for youth unemployment?Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) is often seen as a silver bullet resolving issues ranging from youth unemployment to labour market-related structural change. This is particularly true for developing countries with deficient...
Report
Inquérito à transição ensino-emprego dos finalistas do ensino técnico-profissional em MoçambiqueEste relatório documenta as principais conclusões do Inquérito à Transiçãoo Ensino-Emprego dos Finalistas do Ensino Técnico-Profissional em Moçambique. A pesquisa foi planificada e implementada por pesquisadores do United Nations University World...
Report
Survey on the school-to-work transition of technical and vocational training graduates in MozambiqueThis report documents the main conclusions of the Survey on the School-to-Work Transition of Technical and Vocational Education and Training Graduates in Mozambique. The research was planned and implemented by researchers from the United Nations...
Blog
Mozambique's difficult decade: Three lessons to inform next stepsAt the start of the last decade, Mozambique’s prospects looked stellar. Following from the early 1990s, when peace finally arrived after a devastating...
Working Paper
The socioeconomic impact of coal mining in MozambiqueThis study assesses the impact of four coal mines in Mozambique on the socioeconomic outcomes of the local population. We combine four waves of household surveys with coal mine locations data and employ a difference-in-difference model. The timing of...
Working Paper
Horizontal and intersecting inequalities in MozambiqueThis study seeks to add to the research on inequality in least developed countries, namely in Mozambique, by measuring and mapping indicators of horizontal wealth inequality along geographic regions and ethnolinguistic identities. Using census data...
Working Paper
The role of trust and of poverty in compliance with social distancing measures in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemicSince it began, the COVID-19 pandemic has imposed a number of challenges on Africa and the rest of the world. Following the recommendations of the World Health Organization, many countries imposed social distancing measures and cancelled non...
Working Paper
How far does the apple really fall from the tree?Despite the importance attributed to intergenerational educational mobility in the process of development, there remains little consensus on how mobility should be measured. We present analytical and empirical evidence regarding the sensitivity of...
Working Paper
Informal freelancers in the time of COVID-19Despite the severe negative economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence from many contexts points to a surge in sales on online platforms, as well as shifts in the composition of demand. This paper investigates how the pandemic has...
Working Paper
The impact of COVID-19 on consumption poverty in MozambiqueThis study assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique on household consumption poverty. To predict changes in income and the associated effects on poverty and inequality, we...
Working Paper
The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in MozambiqueThis study aims to assess the economic costs of COVID-19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique, relying on a social accounting matrix. It produces numerical results that represent the direct effect on (or ‘shocks’ to)...
Working Paper
Remote sensing of urban cyclone impact and resilienceCyclone Idai, the most devastating cyclone ever recorded in Southern Africa, caused havoc in large parts of central Mozambique, especially the port city of Beira, upon its landfall in March 2019. This study reviews and compares measurements of the...
Working Paper
Cash grants to manufacturers after Cyclone IdaiIn March 2019, Cyclone Idai hit central Mozambique and caused widespread damage, including businesses in the enterprise sector. We use panel data and a randomized controlled trial to estimate the impact of unconditional cash grants on micro...
Working Paper
Cyclone impacts on manufacturing firms in MozambiqueThis study investigates how manufacturing companies were affected by tropical Cyclone Idai, which struck Central Mozambique in March 2019. The analysis builds upon a representative sample of 464 enterprises located in the cities of Beira and Chimoio...
Working Paper
The determinants of occupational sortingWe examine the link between individual characteristics and sorting into different occupations using data from university students in Mozambique. We provide a comprehensive approach combining the main determinants of occupational sorting identified in...
Policy Brief
Ampliando a protecção social em MoçambiqueO Programa Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB) é um programa de transferência de renda mensal, não condicional, por tempo indeterminado, com o objectivo de reforçar o bem-estar da população pobre e vulnerável. São actualmente elegíveis ao PSSB pessoas em...
Blog
Adding insult to injury – the impacts of COVID-19 on urban youth in MozambiqueThe negative economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mozambique range from reduced social interaction to business closures, job losses...
Blog
Infrastructure spend: insights from the effect of a bridge across the Zambezi on maize prices
Investments in infrastructure – such as roads – typically aim to reduce transport costs, stimulate trade, and make new production activities viable...
Journal Article
Infrastructure improvements and maize market integrationHistorically, transport infrastructure connecting the most agriculturally productive areas of Mozambique and the richer southern region has been poor. A primary bottleneck was an unreliable ferry service over the Zambezi river, addressed by...
Working Paper
Estimating poverty transitions in Mozambique using synthetic panelsIn this paper we first validate the use of the synthetic panels technique in the context of the 2014/15 intra-year panel survey data for Mozambique, and then apply the same technique to the 1996/97, 2002/03, 2008/09, and 2014/15 cross-sectional...
Policy Brief
Fechando a lacuna da protecção social na velhiceMoçambique apresenta instrumentos legais que visam directa ou indirectamente reduzir a vulnerabilidade das pessoas idosas. Com efeito, há cerca de duas décadas, o país aprovou através da Resolução n.º 84/2002 de 12 de Novembro, a Política para a...
Blog
Evidence matters for inclusive growth policy: Reflections from the annual conference of the Inclusive growth in Mozambique programme
Like many developing countries, Mozambique is struggling with problems of poverty, inequality, low productivity, unemployment, and low institutional...
Journal Article
Vulnerability to natural shocksMozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In...
Journal Article
Multidimensional poverty of children in MozambiqueWe analyse the multidimensional wellbeing of children aged 0–17 in Mozambique and find that 46.3% can be considered multidimensionally poor. A substantial divide exists between urban and rural areas and between northern and southern provinces. We...
Working Paper
Economic complexity and structural transformation: the case of MozambiqueMozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use...
Working Paper
Updating great expectationsHow jobseekers set their earnings expectations is central to job search models. To study this process, we track the evolution of own-earnings forecasts over 18 months for a representative panel of university-leavers in Mozambique and estimate the...
Working Paper
Natural resources, institutions, and economic transformation in MozambiqueIn the light of Mozambique’s natural resources boom—especially its large-scale investments in mining, oil, and gas—this paper analyses the prospects for the extractive industries to contribute to economic transformation from an institutional...
Working Paper
Donor relations and sovereigntyAs a sovereign country, Mozambique initially relied on international solidarity and managed its donor relations well. Donor dependency entailed some loss of agency for the government as it allowed donors to challenge its capacity but never its...
Working Paper
Rule of law and judicial independenceThe rule of law and judicial independence are a project yet to be achieved in Mozambique. The different attempts made so far to reform the legal system, mainly after the change in political and strategic direction brought about by the Constitution of...
Working Paper
Economic development and institutions in MozambiqueMozambique has achieved incipient but still fragile socio-economic development since 1975. The public financial management system has been reformed and improved, but its performance has weakened since 2013. Applying an institutional economics...
Working Paper
Decentralization reforms in MozambiqueWith the introduction of the economic reforms in the late 1980s, the opening up of the political arena and the end of the civil war in the early 1990s, the decentralization process began in Mozambique. Different research developed in recent years...
Working Paper
Health, development, and institutional factorsThe central aim of this text is to show the impact institutions have on the performance of the health sector in Mozambique. The text shows that of the social determinants of health, institutions play a central role in the performance of the...
Working Paper
The education sector in MozambiqueFrom the early days of national independence in 1975, the central aim of the educational policy in Mozambique has been to ensure that all school-age children have access to school and can remain there until they have completed their basic education...
Working Paper
Putting the financial system to work for the poor and SMEsThe financial inclusion effort achieved positive results, with the number of Mozambicans having access to banking services increasing considerably, particularly after 2011–12. However, the economic and social impact was limited, considering that farm...
Working Paper
Influence of institutional factors on the performance of the agricultural sector in MozambiqueThis paper is a review of the institutions and the performance of the agricultural sector in Mozambique, using an analysis table adapted to the assessment of the connections between the institutions and economic development. In the first part...
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Theme: 2014-18, Transformation